Assignment - Business Law | Trường Đại học Quốc tế, Đại học Quốc gia Thành phố HCM

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS SUBMISSION COVER SHEET
BUSINESS ANALYSIS & EVALUATION COMPANY RESEARCH PROJECT
Course coordinator: Dr. Tien Nguyen Group members: Team Member Student ID Full Name Signatures Contribution (max 100%)
1. BAFNIU19007 Nguyễn Đức Duy 100%
2. BAFNIU19011 Trịnh Gia Hân 100%
3. BAFNIU19012 Trương Thanh Hoa 100% 4. BAFNIU19016 Bùi Tú Lan 100%
5. BAFNIU19028 Lê Đỗ Mai Oanh 100%
We declare that this assessment item is the own work of our group, except where acknowledgem
has not been submitted for academic credit elsewhere.
Signed: ………………………………………. Date: ……………………………………………
HAI AN TRANSPORT AND STEVEDORING JSC. Ticker: HAH Recommendation: BUY Date: 31/12/2021 (Upside: 50%) Current Price: VND67,800 Price Target: VND102,017 INVESTMENT SUMMARY
We recommend a BUY option for Hai An Logistics JSC., at a target price of VND 102,017.
This price represents a 50% increase over the stock's previous closing price on December
31st, 2021. HAH's stock price is in a period of strong growth. From 2015 to January 2021,
HAH stock price fluctuated at a lower level, then from the beginning of February 2021, HAH
stock price increased with a big slope (Figure 1). Up to now, the share price of HAH has
increased 9 times compared to the previous period. Our recommendation is based on the fol owing key points:
Investment in ships and port upgrades: The company wil continue to invest in its fleet
over the next 3 years. Specifical y, the company wil buy 2 more used container ships of
1,600 - 1,700 TEUs and build 4 new 1,800-TEU container ships of the type “SDARI
Source: Investing.com, Team estimate
Bangkok Mark IV”. Regarding ports and logistics, the company will continue to implement
investment projects in ports and depots in Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau, and the Central
region when there are opportunities. Moreover, the company wil invest in upgrading Hai
An's port yard and drainage system. Ta T b a lbe e 1. 1 Fo F u o n u d n idng n g me m mb m e b rs r
Increase in freight rates: In 2021, the COVID-19 epidemic disrupted the global supply No. Company name
chain, which pushed container freight rates to increase by 5-6 times on average compared to 1 Ha H n a o n i o Ma M r a irtime m e JS J C S
pre-pandemic rates. As for the shipping industry, due to high international freight rates, 2 Ma M r a irtime m e Te T c e h c n h inca c l a Se S r e v r i v ce c s e an a d n d Su S p u p p l p y y JS J C S
many domestic shipping lines have taken advantage of the opportunity to lease ships to 3 Ha H i a Mi M nh n h JS J C S C
foreign markets. At the same time, domestic rates have been gradual y adjusted to suit the 4 Ha H i a An A n Sh S i h pb p u b i u ldi d ng n g JS J C S
general trend. Therefore, the operations of shipping and logistics enterprises stil achieved 5 Ha H i a Ha H a Tr T a r n a s n p s o p r o tr an a d n d Inv n e v s e t s me m n e t n JS J C S
good results. The operations of Hai An Logistics JSC also benefit from this general situation. So S u o r u c r e c : e : Co C m o p m a p n a y n ’ y s ’ s we w b e s b i s t i e t e BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
Hai An Logistics was established on May 8th, 2009 in Ha Noi with 5 founding members with Fi F gu g r u e r e 2 . 2 .HA H H A ’ H s ’ 2 0 2 2 0 1 2 1 br b e r a e k a k d o d w o n n r e r v e e v n e u n e u e
a charter capital of 150 bil ion VND (Table 1). The company focused on main business line
categorization including Seaport Transport Services (accounting for 11% and 14.48% of total 7.01% 10.93%
revenues in 2021 and 2020, respectively) and Marine Transport Services (accounting for 82%
and 79.28% of total revenues in 2021 and 2020, respectively) (Figure 2). In 2017, in order to
diversify services, the company signed a joint venture contract with Pantos Holding 82.05%
Incorporation (Korea) to establish the first joint venture company with a foreign enterprise:
Pan Hai An Co., Ltd (PANHAIAN) to build a Logistics Center in Hai Phong, providing
warehousing services. On March 11th, 2015, the company listed al 23,196,232 shares on the Port service revenues Marine Shipping revenues Revenues from other servi ce So S u o r u c r e c : e :C o C m o p m a p n a y n y da d t a a t , a ,T e T a e m a m e s e titma m t a e t e
Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange with the stock code HAH.
Taking advantage of high international freight rates during the COVID-19 period last year,
Hai An Transport and Handling Joint Stock Company recorded impressive growth.
Figure 3. HAH’s Net Revenue
According to the consolidated financial statements for 2020 and 2021, total net revenue HAH's Net Revenue
reached VND1,191 bil ion in 2020 and VND1,283 bil ion for the first 9 months of 2021 2,500
(Figure 3). After-tax profit accounted for VND147 bil ion in 2020 and VND284 bil ion for ilions B 2,000 the first 9 months of 2021. 1,500
With the strategy to focus on accelerating investment in transport capacity, in addition to the 1,000
domestic market, the company also intends to expand to the Asian market, especial y 500
Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia, to serve Vietnam's import and export goods. The
company's output of seaport and marine transport services wil decrease this year. Thus, the 0 2017 2018 2019 2020
202 revenue and profit growth prospects wil mainly come from the increase in freight rates.
Source: Company data, Team estimate CORPORATE GOVERNANCE
Organizational model: HAH's corporate governance has a wel -defined organizational
model for conducting business, which consists of:
Table 2. HAH’s Board of management
Board of Management (BOM): The Board of Management includes 7 individuals (al of
them are Vietnamese people (Table 2).
HAH's management team has many years of seasoned experience and expertise in th
company's business fields. As a result, the management team is expected to be able to com
up with appropriate strategies and take timely response measures to the rapid fluctuations o
the Vietnamese economy as wel as the seaport industry, in particular.
Board of Director (BOD) structure: There are 6 members in the Board of Director structure
and al of them are Vietnamese : Vũ Ngc Sơn – Chairman ; Vũ Thanh Hi – Member ; Trần
Quang Tiến – Member ; Nguyễn Ngc Tun – Member ; Trần Thị Hi Yến - Independent
member ; Nguyễn Thị Vân - Independent member. Al members of the BOD attended all
Source: HAH’s annual report 2021 meetings before 2021.
Shareholders structure: Vietnam shareholders invest in Hai An more than foreign
Figure 4. HAH’s shareholder structure
shareholders (Figure 4). Large funds and corporations are shareholders of the company suc
as Sao A D.C Investment JSC, CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund, America LLC, etc. Hai Ha
Transport and Investment JSC owns the highest shares of HAH (11.41% of the capital with
7,794,500 shares). These show that Hai An has been an attractive corporation to invest in and
could potential y develop in the future. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
1. Advantages of the maritime industry Geographical location
The Vietnamese marine logistics industry has been benefiting from Vietnam’s strategic
construction of numerous ship docks as wel as easy access for ships from far and wide.
Source: HAH’s annual report 2021
Transportation infrastructure construction and development
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the construction of transportation infrastructure was
extremely stagnant due to unexpected lockdowns. By contrast, after the pandemic has been
wel control ed, the process has been continued again using enormous funds from the
Government's supporting packages and even urged to finish soon. This contributes to the
effective connection among different types of routes including road, river, and maritime
routes, hence increased transport efficiency for the marine logistics industry.
2. Market share and transportation volumes
Vietnam has been a large logistics market with increasing volumes of imports and exports
compared to other ASEAN countries despite the negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.
This helped the total marine cargo transportation loads through Vietnamese docks increase
over time. However, the market share that the Vietnamese fleet has regarding imports and
exports has been decreasing compared to that of others. This is because 800 out of 1,04
Figure 5: The size of Vietnam's shipping fleet
Vietnamese specialized ships are smal - and medium-sized whose capacities are no more tha
in the period 2016 - Oct 2021 (includes only
10,000 GT, while the number of above-30,000-GT ships is just 13. There has been a trend
specialized cargo ships, excluding other ships/vehicles)
towards investment in container ships and other upper-size ones in Vietnam, but no
breakthrough has been recorded in the trend until now. Also, the Vietnamese fleet is stil
fal ing behind other countries regarding techniques, expertise, and experience while the
international logistics supply chain requires higher and higher transport quality.
Consequently, foreign fleets whose conditions above are satisfactorily met easily outperform
the Vietnamese one in terms of marine logistics market share.
Soure: Vietnam Maritime Administration
International Marine Logistics Supply Chain and Transportation Fees
During the Covid-19 pandemic, many countries had to implement lockdown and reduced
production policies. This caused the docks in developed countries including America, Figure 6: Q
uantity of goods through Vietnam seaport
European nations, and China to suffer great jams, which inevitably results in a shortage of
international supply chains of marine logistics services. Consequently, inadequacy in ship and
container supplies arises, causing container transportation fees to increase by 5 - 6 times o
average compared to the period before the pandemic. The shortage of marine logistics supply
chains is expected to be long-lasting in the future, especial y regarding container transport
capacity, so firms focusing on their investment in containers and transport capacity may
sustain wel under such a circumstance.
Source: Vietnam Maritime Administration Industry Constraints
Limited transport productivity
The Vietnamese fleet requires lower investment capital and is easier to operate compared to
other developed countries’ fleets, meaning that it has not generated optimal productivity and
may find it difficult to compete with other rivals in international marine logistics markets. Resource shortage
It is difficult to recruit competent captains and crew members for the marine logistics industry
as such staff are required to have enough technical proficiency and experience to ensure saf
transportation. In addition, Vietnamese captains and crew members stil have a limited
understanding of international regulations on marine transportation, so it is difficult to enable
the Vietnamese fleet to operate in developed countries with rigorous legislation. Threats
Large foreign marine logistics brands have been through considerable M&A and
reorganization ventures, granting them significant competitiveness regarding quality, prices,
and chal enging Vietnamese firms in terms of acquiring international market share.
Container ship utilization requires significant experience, network, and financial support,
which hardly any Vietnamese ship lords have been able to acquire. Hence, it is stil
chal enging for Vietnamese logistics firms to make use of international container ship route.
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES AND POSITIONING
Figure 7: Container ships count
Leading position in domestic container transportation capacity
In the first half of 2022, Hai An successful y received the 10th container ship named 12
HAIAN CITY. With the presence of HAIAN CITY, HAH currently possesses the highest 10 10
number of container ships in Vietnam with 10 container ships, accounting for 20.83% of 8
the total 48 container ships in Vietnam (Figure 7). This makes the total tonnage of the 7 6 6
HAH’s fleet increase to 14,263 TEU. In addition, the average capacity of Hai An ships 5 4 4
also beats that of its competitors (Figure 8). With this strong container fleet, Hai An now 4 3 3
has a higher market share over competitors in the container shipping sector and is 2 2 2 2
expected to expand in the years to come when Hai An Group's management has planned 0
to continue investing in 4 new ships, scheduled to be delivered in 2023 - 2024.
Ful -service logistics is a highlight of Hai An in the industry
Source: Cuc dang kiem Vietnam, companies’
With the col aboration of 9 member companies and branches operating throughout the websites Figure 8: Q
uantity of goods through Vietnam
country, the synchronous implementation of package logistics services, from seaport
warehousing, wharf, loading and unloading, container clearance and repair to water and 1,400
road transport in 2 main regions of the country: Hai Phong - Ha Noi and Vung Tau - 1,237 1,200
HCMC, transportation service from port to port, from warehouse to warehouse by al 1,000 956
types of transport, along with the putting into operation of the PAN Hai An cargo 770 800 719 719
distribution center, has made Hai An a complete and prestigious logistics center in 585 600 588 600 560 555
Vietnam. Convenience, time-saving, and simplicity in the procedure are what Hai An’s 444 400
customers can benefit from. As a result, this is a driver for customers to choose Hai An 200
services rather than other competitors. 0
One of few domestic transport firms possessing alternating harbors and important cargo alternating centers
Source: Cuc dang kiem Vietnam, companies’
Hai An runs the Hai An harbor on the Cam river, Hai Phong, with a lifting and parking websites
capacity of up to 250,000 TEU per year and 20,000DWT, respectively. This enables
HAH to become one of the few inland waterway transport firms to have alternative
harbors for its business operations. As a result, Hai An takes advantage of the ability to
gather goods col ectively, to reduce transport waiting time and fleet turnover.
Furthermore, domestic rivers are being increasingly used for transporting goods to
harbors, reducing logistics expenses and attracting customers’ demand. Hai An
corporation has enhanced the position of deep-water harbors, including important cargo
alternating centers, helping raise the demand for feeder fleet services regarding cargo col ection.
Benefits from large-size vessels
HAH controls 51% of Hai An Container Transportation Co. Ltd (HACT), the company
with the largest fleet, capacity, and market share in domestic container transportation.
Since 2015, HAH has taken advantage of the downturn cycle and invested extensively in
large size vessels at a low cost. This provides a significant advantage for HAH because
large-size vessels operate at a lower cost per container compared to its competitors in the
sector and always maintain a timely schedule for clients because they do not have to stop
due to a storm like smal -size vessels. Furthermore, establishing a schedule would attract
corporate clients, whose logistic supply chain is the most significant component. As a
result, the largest part is always assigned to companies that can provide the service.
Catching 4.0 trends with technology application
The company is implementing the warehouse operation management system on PL-TOS
RTC software and online networking, including 10 modules for ship planning and
operation, port operation, trade, EDI Port management, Container receipt, Container
repair inspection, refrigerated container management, Forklift management, Tonnage
management. This system helps identify and manage goods easily, convenient for
transportation, loading and unloading, improving service quality at Hai An port. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Net Sales 59.55% 35.52% 5.18% 7.46% 64.08% Cost of Sales 79.00% 45.39% 6.55% 7.04% 30.32% SG&A expense 40.22% 35.05% 9.63% 1.01% 25.25% ROE 18.25% 13.04% 10.58% 10.97% 28.95% P/E 4.21 5.06 4.18 8.54 10.18 Net Profit Margin 19.61% 15.07% 11.97% 12.30% 28.16% Fixed Assets Turnover 1.20 1.35 1.33 1.22 1.48 WC Turnover 6.81 4.93 3.08 3.16 3.76 Debt / Equity 56.55% 35.88% 45.66% 56.80% 69.94% Interest Coverage 30.04 27.36 10.16 8.26 21.61 1. Profitability
Firgure 9. Hai An’s ROE from 2017 to 2021
HAH’s ROE remained stable in 2019 and 2020 at 10.58% and 10.97%, respectively,
before suddenly rising to 28.95% in 2021. This was primarily because the transport
and ship leasing fees significantly rose during the year, and the firm also succeeded in
taking part in two new ship leasing contracts for Haian West and Haian Mind.
HAH’s revenue growth reached 35.52% in 2018 but significantly decreased to
5.18% in 2019. Then it rose slightly in the next year, before rocketing to 64.08% in
2021. The slowdown in 2019’s revenue growth resulted mainly from decreases in the
Source: Company data, Team estimate
volume of goods transferred through the firm’s ports located in Hai Phong and in the
transport fees for one of HAH’s domestic routes. By contrast, a considerable surge in
Firgure 10: Revenue from 2017 to 2021
HAH’s revenue growth in 2021 resulted mainly from an approximate double in shipping
revenues. Despite the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the volume of goods
transported through Vietnamese port systems stil managed to increase, which
considerably benefited Hai An thanks to its large market share (nearly 30%) in the
domestic transport market. Also, the increase in shipping revenues came from a
significant rise in ship leasing and transportation fees owing to a shortage in the
container ship supply chain, while the demand for container transport strongly rose after
the COVID-19 had been wel -control ed. The revenue of Hai An has been higher than
the industry average’s revenue.
Source: Company data, Team estimate
Figure 11: Net profit margin from 2017 to
HAH’s Net Profit Margin (NPM) decreased over time from 2017 to 2019 (from 2021
19.61% to 11.97%), then slightly rose to 12.30% in 2020, before surging more than NET PROFIT MARGIN 90.00% 80.00%
twofold to 28.16% in 2021. Also, the firm’s NPM outperformed that of the industry in 70.00%
2021 after consecutive 4 years of underperforming, which is regarded as a positive signal 60.00% 50.00%
of HAH’s business as it operates in a capital-intensive industry, whose ROE depends 40.00%
mostly on the NPM. The increase in HAH’s NPM came mainly from its considerable 30.00% 20.00%
revenue growth thanks to increasing ship leasing and transport fees, while it stil 10.00%
managed to keep its SG&A expenses and Cost of Sales wel -control ed relative to 0.00% 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A Net profit margin Cost of sales SG&A HAH’s revenue growth.
Source: Company data, Team estimate 2. Efficiency (Turnovers)
Hai An’s Fixed Asset Turnover (FAT) from 2017 to 2021 remained below the
Firgure 12: Fixed asset turnover from 2017 to 2021
industry's average turnover, but in general experienced an uptrend from 1.20 to
1.48, despite a slight fal in 2020. The inferiority of HAH’s FAT to that of other
competitors in the industry was because of the firm’s continuous investment in its fixed
assets, including the Haian West and Haian East container ships in Q2/2021, the PAN
Hai An Logistics Center in Q3/2020, etc. This, in the short term, appears to be
unfavorable for HAH’s earnings, but brings the firm considerable benefits in the long
term, which has partly been illustrated by a strong increase in HAH’s 2021’s revenue
growth rate thanks to its container ship availability during the period of the ship supply
chain shortage. Also, the steady increase in HAH’s FAT has reflected the firm’s
Source: Company data, Team estimate
efficiency in its fixed asset utilization.
The working capital turnover of HAH has gradual y risen from 2019 to 2021, which was
from 3.08 in 2019 to 3.76 in 2021, despite the downtrend before. This implies that the
company has been able to generate a higher volume of sales. The years from 2020 to
2021 are the period that Vietnam’s economy was seriously impacted by the COVID-19
pandemic; however, the increase in working capital turnover of HAH is a good signal for
the effective operation of the company. 3. Solvency
From the figures stated on the Balance Sheet, the calculated ratios imply that HAH’s
financing sources mainly come from equity rather than debt. To be more specific, during
Figure 13: Debt to equity ratio from 2017 to 2021
the last 5 years, HAH’s debt to equity ratio (D/E ratio) was lower than 1. However, an
uptrend pattern is witnessed for four years where the proportion of debt over equity
increased from 0.36 (2018) to 0.7 (2021), which has been higher than the industry’s
average ratio. On the other hand, considering 2017 and 2018, there was a considerable change when the debt-t -
o equity ratio was cut from 0.56 (2017) down to 0.36 (2018). It is
because from 2017 to 2018, equity increased nearly 46% while total debt experienced a
drop of approximately 8%. It is possible that the company issued shares to pay the due debt.
Source: Company data, Team estimate
Regarding the ability to cover interest payments, the calculated interest coverage ratio
for the last 5 years is al much higher than 2 times, which is primarily less risky since the
earnings of the company exceed the interest liability amount, so there is a lot of money
left. Taking a deeper look into the interest coverage ratio, we notice that the ability to
pay interest declined nearly four times from 2017 to 2020. The interest coverage
significantly decreased from 27.35 times in 2018 to slightly over 10 times in 2019. This
resulted from the high increase in interest expense together with a decrease in EBIT in
the period 2018-2019, which might have come from the additional debt HAH took in
2019. The decline occurred for two years before its remarkable increase to 21.6 in 2021.
This is because in 2021, even though the interest expense went up over 32 bil ion VND,
the revenue experienced an extreme increase of approximately 260% compared to 2020.
This is consistent with the above analysis when HAH took advantage of an increase in
freight rates and got a huge gain during the Covid-19 period. VALUATION
Table 3. Final HAH’s Target Share Price
We determined HAH’s target price at VND102,017, which was computed as the Share price from FCFF
weighted average of the firm’s intrinsic and relative valuation methodologies. They Valuation VND 85,931
include the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model (DCF Model) (70%) and Relative Share price from VND 139,549.72 Relative Valuation Valuation (30%) (Table 3 ) Estimated Share price VND 102,017 Discounted Free Cash Flow Current share price VND 67,800
We adopted the Three-stage H Model for HAH, in which we divide the firm’s Upside / (Downside) 50%
development into three phases: growth phase (2022 - 2026), transitional phase (2026 -
2036), and maturity phase (2036 onwards). We expect the firm to grow strongly during
2022 - 2026 thanks to its continuous investment in its fleet expansion, significantly
raising transport capacity, while there exist short-term and long-term factors maintaining
transport fees at high levels, supporting HAH’s revenues. In the transitional phase,
HAH’s revenues witness a gradual slowdown in its growth and then remain stable forever in the maturity phase. Discount Factor
We adopt the CAPM Model to compute HAH’s Cost of Equity. Our risk-free rate (RFR)
is the Vietnamese 5-year Government Bond obtained from World Government Bonds.
The market return is computed from the daily VN Index returns from 2017 - 2021, and
then combined with the RFR to determine the Market risk premium of 15.3%. The beta is
computed using a regression model of 1,248 daily values of VN Index during the chosen
5-year period. Hai An borrows both short- and long-term debts at 11.76% per annum, and
its tax rate is 14%, which is the average of its actual rates of taxes paid compared to its
Earnings before tax each year from 2017 to 2021. The components of HAH’s WACCs
are shown in the table below, from which we determine the discount rates for its
forecasted free cash flows. The WACC tends to increase over the period as the increase
in Owners’ Equity is greater than that of Total Debt, which is explained in the Key
Assumptions for Projections section. Return on Equity (ROE)
Figure 14: Hai An’s ROE
In the following years, HAH’s ROE is not expected to maintain at the level in 2021 (2017 - 2026)
(28.95%), but gradual y decline and reach 13.62% in 2026 (Figure 14). Though ROE (%)
decreasing, we stil expect the ROE to remain at higher levels than that before the Covid- 35.00
19 breakout thanks to long-term factors keeping the transport fees at high levels. The 30.00 25.00
reason for the decrease comes from a slowdown in the firm’s forecasted revenues 20.00
throughout the period, and the rising Equity of HAH. Al those factors are explained in 15.00
the Key Assumptions for Projections. 10.00 5.00
Key Assumptions for Projections 0.00 Net Revenues
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F
We forecast HAH’s total revenues by breaking it down to 3 components: Sales from Port,
Source: Company data, Team estimate
Marine Shipping, and Other Services.
(1) Marine Shipping Services: The contribution of Marine Shipping services to HAH’s
total revenues steadily increased throughout 2017 – 2021 from 62.25% (2017) to 82.05%
(2021), showing the firm has been focusing more on the proportion of this sector (Figure
Figure 15: Hai An’s Revenue Breakdown
15). We expect the proportion to remain stable from 2022 to 2026, meaning HAH wil (2017 - 2026)
focus mainly on this sector over the period. During the Covid-19 pandemic, its negative
impacts caused the transport stagnation at worldwide seaports and breakage of the
container ship supply chain, resulting in a tremendous rise in transportation and ship
leasing fees. This is only regarded temporary and expected to weaken after more ships
have been supplied and come into operation from the second half of 2022 to the end of
2023, there emerge some factors maintaining the transport and ship leasing fees at a
higher level in the long run than that before the pandemic, including:
+ The reinforcement of the supply and fee controls of marine shipping lines thanks to Source: Team estimate
the rising number of M&A ventures wil raise their reputation. This is a new milestone in
the marine shipping industry's development, making it hard for the long-term transport
fees to return to the level before the COVID-19 pandemic.
+ The regulations by the IMO in 2020 on vessels’ exhaust fumes curtailment aiming
to cut CO2 emissions by 40% by 2030, causing shipping lines to adopt different
approaches to comply with them. Among the methods is the reduction in vessels’ moving
speed to save energy, causing a slowdown in container transport and rising transport fees.
Hai An has realized the potential for future growth soon, so it has been investing in the
expansion of its own fleet to significantly enhance its transport capacity. Specifical y,
during the first half of 2022, the firm has invested in 2 additional used ships with the
capacity of 1,577 and 1,708 TEUs and plans to acquire 4 more ships from 2023 to 2024,
each of which has a capacity of approximately 1,800 TEUs.
Based on the information above, we expect HAH’s Marine Shipping revenues to grow
by 45%, 20%, and 10% in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. After this period, the
growth is expected to slow down, at 7% and 10% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
(2) Port Services: The contribution of Port services to HAH’s revenues witnessed a
downtrend from 32.86% in 2017 to 10.93% in 2021, indicating the firm’s switching from
providing Port services to Marine shipping ones. However, this downtrend is not
expected to continue, as the significant benefits for the firm’s Marine shipping factors are
just temporary. In 2022, HAH is planning investment in its seaports, Depot in Ho Chi
Minh City, Vung Tau, and the Middle of Vietnam, as wel as the renovation of the front
area of Hai An Port. Despite the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the
growth rate of the total volume of container goods transported through the Vietnamese
seaport system rose from 6% (2019) to 13% (2020) and stil maintained at 8% in 2021,
higher than that before the pandemic and is expected to remain at 6% on average from
2021 – 2030, maintaining the average port revenue growth rate at 9% per year during the
period. Also, the growth rate in HAH’s port service revenues experienced an acceleration
over the period 2018 – 2021, up to nearly 24% in 2021, which came from HAH’s port
system capacity maximization during the period. Based on those trends, we forecast
HAH’s Port services revenue growth to be 20% during 2022 – 2024, and slightly slow down to 16% in 2026.
(3) Other Services: these services are not the core operating activities of HAH, and the
revenues generated from them do not significantly contribute to the Total Revenues. We
forecast HAH’s Other services revenue growth to be 10% in 2022, 5% in 2023, and
then gradual y rise to 17% in 2026. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
From 2017 to 2020, Hai An’s COGS maintained at around 80% of its net sales, while in
2021, the proportion suddenly fell to 63.47% only, benefiting the firm’s Gross profit.
This is not expected to last long, especial y because there have emerged risks of inflation
from the Government’s loosening monetary policy to support corporations subject to the
negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and a rise in the global oil prices due to the
political tension between Russia and Ukraine. As a result, HAH’s COGS is expected to
rise in our forecasted period, up to 80% of its net sales in 2026.
Debt Schedule, Retained Earnings, and Debt-to-Capital ratio
We expect HAH’s revenues to increase favorably from 2022 to 2024 thanks to the factors
maintaining high transport and ship leasing fees as mentioned above, hence abundance of
the firm’s Net income after tax and Cash flows generated. As a result, HAH is expected
to be able to finance its own capital without borrowing too much debt and even to repay
its historical debt amounts. This explains why the firm stil borrows both Short- and
Table 4 Discounted Free Cash Flows Valuation
Long-term debts from 2022 to 2026, but the year-end balances of such debts stil remain Model
stable over the years. Also, thanks to the large amounts of forecasted Net Income after PV of FCFFs &
tax each year, HAH’s Retained Earnings are expected to rise favorably during the period, Terminal value (VND) 5,084,483,410,927
mainly contributing to the rise of the firm’s Owners’ Equity without issuing additional Less: Market Value of
shares. As a result, HAH’s Debt-to-Capital ratio is expected to decline over the years, Debt (VND) 892,520,825,773
causing the firm’s WACC to rise.
Transitional phase: 2026 - 2036 Number of shares outstanding 48,782,751
HAH’s FCFF growth rate in 2026 is forecasted to be 16%, and then gradual y decline to HAH’s Target Share 4% in 2036. price (VND) 85,931 Mature phase: 2036 onwards Upside 26.742%
In this phase, HAH’s FCFF is expected to grow at 4% forever, given that the firm no
longer carry out any expansion or M&A projects. Share price on Dec 31, 2021 (VND) 67,800 Valuation Models
Discounted Free Cash Flows Valuation: We forecast HAH’s FCFFs from 2022 to 2026
using our forecasted CFOs, Interest expenses, and Capital Expenditures. Then, HAH’s
Table 5: Relative valuation method using P/B forward
terminal value in 2026 is computed using the formula of the Three-stage H Model with
the sustainable growth rate of 4%. Then we compute the Present Values of al those Share price on Dec 31, 67,800
figures by scaling them with the discount factors. After combining al the results, we 2021 (VND) Current BVPS (VND) 31,808.82
deduct the Market Value of Debt for HAH’s intrinsic value, which is divided by the Current P/B 2.92
current number of shares outstanding for the target share price (Table 4) BVPS forward (VND)
Relative Valuation: We determine HAH’s Target Share Price by multiplying the Book 66,200.06
value per share (BVPS) and P/B forward together. The BVPS forward is determined by P/B forward 2.108
the average of HAH’s Owners’ Equity during 2022 - 2026 divided by the current number HAH’s Target Share
139,549.72 of shares outstanding, while the P/B forward is computed by taking the average of price (VND)
HAH’s industry peers’ P/B ratios in 2021 (Table 5)
SCENARIO AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
In our scenario analysis, we consider six main factors affecting HAH’s operation from
2022E to 2026F, including the 3 components of HAH’s Revenues (Revenues from Port, Table 6: S cenario Analysis
Marine Shipping, and Other services), COGS/Sales ratio, Receivables and Payables
turnovers. In the best case, we assume that inflation is wel control ed by the
Government’s policies, putting restrictions on the rise of oil prices, one of the main input
costs of the firm, hence reduced COGS and improved Gross Profit Margin. Also, in such
a scenario, we expect the demand for imports and exports to be strong and HAH can stil
maintain its large market share, guaranteeing the firm can utilize its transport capacity,
hence its optimal revenues and cash flows generated. By contrast, in the worst case, we
assume the supply of Container ships may progress faster than we have expected, driving
the market towards equilibrium quicker, hence a sooner decrease in freight rates and ship
leasing fees. Also, the increasing ship supply may pose to HAH a risk of losing its market
share. Another factor is that the inflation fails to be control ed effectively, causing HAH's
COGS proportion to rise, limiting its gross profit. Al those factors can significantly
restrict the firm’s revenues. Some other negative factors to be considered include that
HAH provide credits to customers with poor creditworthiness, reducing its Receivables
turnover, or its suppliers restrict the terms of the loans granted to HAH, increasing the
firm’s Payables turnover, hence more cash outflows of HAH.
We run a sensitivity analysis on the fluctuations of the WACC and Terminal Growth
Rate. From the results generated, the Final Share price in the worst case is VND 90,353
when the WACC is 16.44% and Terminal Growth Rate is 3.4%, which stil support our BUY recommendation. Table 7: Sensitivity analysis
PORTER’S FIVE FORCES
Figure 16: Porter’s Five Forces
Threat of new entrants: Moderate Porter's Five Forces
The maritime industry natural y needs high capital requirements. To make a seaport Threat 4 of new entrants
company available for operation requires a huge initial investment in fixed assets 3 2
(buildings, offices, etc.) and mobile equipment such as vessels, vessel’s operational risk, Bargaining power of 1 Threat of substitution customers 0
and cargo availability. Furthermore, the region in which maritime activities take place
includes both the port's infrastructure such as berths, quays, docks, and storage yards as
wel as the superstructure. This high cost of entry partial y limits the number of players in Bargaining power of Rivalry within the suppliers industry
this industry. However, as the maritime sector provides the foundation for most of the
countries’ economies, the government will strongly support the new entrance. In Source: Team estimate
conclusion, the threat of new entrants is moderate in the seaport industry.
Threat of substitution: Moderate
Substitution risk comes from a change in consumer behavior toward a rival or against the
company. Substitution can also occur as a result of a change in service quality, a rise in
freight charges, or a shipment increase. If the price of oil rises, the company's
transportation fees wil have to rise as wel . Due to growing transportation prices and
difficulties in reaching their destinations on time, customers would seek alternatives such
as airplanes, trucks, or goods trains. Customers wil explore such alternatives if an
airplane, a freight train, or a truck can match the pricing of shipping companies while
also delivering on time. However, in the case of imports and exports, ships are stil
preferred by the customers due to many advantages, including scope of wide
transportation, long distance, large carrying capacity and low transportation costs in the
relative comparison to other means of transportation. As a result, the threat of substitution is moderate.
Rivalry within the industry: High
Due to the low differentiation of services, the competition is tremendously high between
different marine carriers and every shipping line relies on its core competency through
different strategies. The industry’s profit margin is high because of significantly rising
transport fees in 2021, which are not expected to decline in the near future. Furthermore,
in terms of global competition, domestic maritime companies are somewhat weaker
compared with foreign transport enterprises. Big Vietnamese shipping players in the
industry can be mentioned like Vosco, Vinaship, and Falcon, which are stil limited in
transport capacity. Most of the remaining maritime companies are smal in scale and cannot meet market demand.
Bargaining power of suppliers: Low
Suppliers provide fuel oil, lube oil, freshwater, paints, repair services, etc. to the maritime
companies while the number of suppliers in the market is large. Therefore, they are
chosen based on their price differences. Also, various enterprises in the industry construct
ships for themselves and require a large supply of ship parts whose manufacturers are
ubiquitous and aggressively compete with one another, reducing the bargaining power of such suppliers.
Bargaining power of customers: High
The industry’s buyers include exporters, importers, manufacturers, freight agents, and
brokers from different parts of the world who can control business and shipments through
negotiation and bargaining of prices to select the suitable shipping carriers which can
deal due to suitable sea freights, transit time, service provision, destinations and so on.
Manufacturing is becoming increasingly customized, which appeals to customers but
makes things more difficult for the maritime industry. The switching cost is low because
of the substantial number of operators.
Rivalry within the industry and bargaining power are regarded as the two key
factors that affect the maritime industry due to the low differentiation in the products
and services of this industry. As a result, the companies in the maritime industry such as
HAH need to constantly improve services and technology to reduce costs but stil
maintain the quality of services and products to increase profits and compete with other rivals. INVESTMENT RISKS 1. Macroeconomic risks
National economic growth risk: HAH is a company operating in seaport services,
shipping and logistics, so the company's production and business results are directly
correlated with the state of Vietnam’s economy, the ease of international trade (i.e.,
import-export activity) and industry growth. Therefore, the economic growth rate is an
important indicator for companies to decide medium and long-term development orientation.
Exchange rate risk: In transportation services, most of the revenue and expenses payable
such as the cost of raw materials or commission fees for foreign brokers are paid in
foreign currency. In transferring between currencies, HAH would face exchange rate
fluctuation. Therefore, exchange rate fluctuations have a certain effect on the revenue and profit of HAH.
Regulation risk: The policy for control ing the import and export of border-crossing
commodities between Vietnam and other countries, including tax, fee, and quarantine
policies, has a direct impact on the Company's economic activities. Inspect product
quality requirements, as wel as specific management rules for each sort of product in each period.
These are systematic risks and unavoidable, however, to minimize legal risks, Hai An
leadership always catches up with the information and is flexible in changing the plan. In
addition, the Company always maintains the update of new legal regulations for al
employees, and at the same time consult more with legal consulting organizations when necessary. 2. Industry risks
Fuel price risk: The company's activities are affected by the rises and fal s in fuel costs
because of its transportation and freight forwarding activities. However, because
petroleum is entirely dependent on global conditions, the corporation may have to adjust
service prices in accordance with the market. The fluctuation of oil price affects since the
cost of raw materials (oil) accounts for 30-35% of the total cost of shipping. However,
this risk is mitigated quite wel by HAH when HAH leases out 3-4 ships to foreigners and
hence, it can transfer a portion of this risk to the lessee.
Competitive risk: After Lach Huyen port is put into use, it has put competitive pressure
on the surrounding regional port system including Dinh Vu, Bach Dang, Song Cam, Song
Tranh in general, and Hai An Port in particular. Furthermore, the company is competing
in price with other ports in the Hai Phong area. Businesses in the same industry are
wil ing to cut prices by 20% or tolerate losses in order to attract customers.
Freight rate risks: As freight rate is one of the two major drivers of revenue in maritime
firms. The increase and decrease in freight rates directly affect the revenue of the industry
in the short term. Due to the scarcity of containers and congestion at major ports in the
world in general and in Vietnam in specific, in case freight rates have surged, it cuts off
the number of goods circulating through seaports. On the other hand, if freight rate goes
down, the income of HAH would inevitably suffer.
However, the business leadership clearly saw these chal enges and actively prepared a
plan to invest in container ships and organize container shipping routes inland from the
end of 2013 to ensure work for Hai An port. With the development of domestic container
shipping routes and cooperation with foreign container carriers to maintain short
container shipping routes (Feeder) to ensure input for the port so business efficiency of
the Company wil be guaranteed.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE
Environmental: Hai An already and is going to take action on environmental problems.
Evidently, two ships ordered from China's manufacturer in August 2021 equipped with
MO TIER II tuners which meet emission standards of Europe and America.
Social: Workers’ health and safety is the main concern of Hai An, particularly this
industry where piracy, weather exposes huge threats to assets or crews. Al employees in
the Company have a labor contract, insurance, guaranteed employment, paid according to ability.
Governance: Board of Management has many years of seasoned experience and
expertise in the company's business fields. As a result, the management team is expected
to be able to come up with appropriate strategies and take timely responses to the fluctuations of the economy. APPENDIX
Figure 17. WACC Components and Trend
Figure 18. Hai An’s Acquired Container ships during 2017 - 2024 Time Ship purchased Capacity 2017 HAIAN BELL 1,200 TEUs HAIAN FAIR 1,706 TEUs 2018 HAIAN LINK 1,060 TEUs 2019 HAIAN MIND 1,794 TEUs 2020 HAIAN VIEW 1,577 TEUs HAIAN EAST 1,702 TEUs 2021 HAIAN WEST 1,740 TEUs HAIAN CITY 1,577 TEUs 2022 ANBIEN BAY 1,708 TEUs 2023 - 2024 4 new Container ships 1,800 TEUs each Figure 19. Breakdown Revenues Figure 20. Income Statement
Figure 21. Statement of Financial Position
Figure 22. Cash Flow Statement
Figure 23. D bt Schedule forecast e
Figure 24. Retained Earnings forecast