Chapter 11 - Multiple Regression - Statistics for Business | Trường Đại học Quốc tế, Đại học Quốc gia Thành phố HCM

Chapter 11 - Multiple Regression - Statistics for Business | Trường Đại học Quốc tế, Đại học Quốc gia Thành phố HCM được sưu tầm và soạn thảo dưới dạng file PDF để gửi tới các bạn sinh viên cùng tham khảo, ôn tập đầy đủ kiến thức, chuẩn bị cho các buổi học thật tốt. Mời bạn đọc đón xem!

International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba .blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
1
STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS [IUBA]
CHAPTER 11
M ULTIPLE REGRESSION
STRUCTURE OF PAPER
PART I - M ULTIPLE REGRESSION M ODEL
PART II - M EASURES OF PERFORM ANCE OF A REGRESSION M ODEL AND THE ANOVA TABLE
PART III - THE F – TEST OF A M ULTIPLE REGRESSION M ODEL
PART IV - TESTS OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INDIVIDUAL REGRESSION PARAM ETERS
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
2
PART I
M ULTIPLE REGRESSION M ODEL
The population regression model of a dependent variable on a set of independent
variables
,
, ,
is given by
=
+
+
+ +
+
where
is t he int ercept of t he regression surface and each
, = 1, , is t he slope
of the regression surface – sometimes called the response surface – with respect t o variable
.
M odel Assum ptions:
1. For each observat ion, the error term is normally distributed wit h m ean zero and st andard
deviation and is independent of the error t erms associated wit h all ot her observat ions.
That is,
~
(
0,
)
for all = 1, 2,…,
independent of ot her errors.
2. In t he context of regression analysis, t he variables
are considered fix quant it ies, although
in t he cont ext of correlational analysis, t hey are random variab les. In any case,
  ℎ . When w e assume that
are fixed quant it ies, we are
assum ing t hat we have realizat ion of varibles
and t hat the only random ness in com es
from the error t erm .
The Estimat ed Regression Relationship
The estim ated regression relationship is
=
+
+
+ +
where
is t he predict ed value of , the value lying on t he estim ated regression surface.
The term s
, = 0, …, , are the least-squares est imat es of the p opulation regression
par ameters
.
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
3
PART II
M EASURES OF PERFORM AM CE OF A REGRESSION M ODEL
AND THE ANOVA TABLE
M ean Square Error
(

)
Standard Error of Estimate
(
)
 and are measur es of how well the regression fit s the dat a

=

(
+
)
=

M ultiple Correlation Coefficient
(
)
M ultiple Coefficient of Det ermination
(
)
Adjusted M ultiple Coefficient of Det ermination
(
)
,
, and
are measures of how well t he regression m odel fits the dat a. In ot her
words, t hey measure t he percentage of variation in t he dependent variable explained
by the independent variables
M ult iple Correlat ion Coefficient
=
M ult iple Coefficient of Determination
=


=


Adjusted M ult iple Coefficient of Determination
=
/
[
(
+
) ]

/
(
)
=
(
)
(
+
)
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
4
ANOVA Table for M ultiple Regression M odel
Source of Variation
Sum of Squares
(

)

M ean Square
(

)
F. ratio
(
)
Regression
(
)


=

=


Error
(
)

(
+
1
)

=

(
+
1
)
Total
(
)

1
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
5
PART III
THE F TEST OF A M ULTIPLE REGRESSION M ODEL
F – test of a mult iple regression model is a statist ical hypot hesis test for the existence
of a linear relationship between and any of the
F test of a M ultiple Regression M odel
HYPOTHESIS TESTING PROCESS:
STEP 01: Determine t he null and alt ernatio n hypothesis:
=
=
=
= =
=
=   
(
= , …,
)
 
STEP 02: Const ruct the ANOVA Table for the multiple regression m odel
Source of Variation
Sum of Squares
(

)

M ean Square
(

)
F. ratio
(
)
Regression
(
)


=

=


Error
(
)

(
+
1
)

=

(
+
1
)
Total
(
)

1
STEP 03: Comput e the test statistic value
(
)
(based on the ANOVA table) and t he
critical value
(
)
(based on the level of significance)
The t est st at istic value:
= =


International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
6
At the level of significance, the crit ical value:
=
,, 
( )
STEP 04: CONCLUSION
+ Situation 01: We cannot reject the null hypo thesis
since
<
For the instance that the null hypothesis is tr ue, no linear relationship
exists between t he dependent variable and any of the independent
variables
in the proposed regression m odel.
+ Situation 02: We can reject t he null hypothesis
since
>
For t he inst ance that we can reject the null hypot hesis, there is
st atist ical evidence to conclude that a regression relationship exists
between t he dependent var iable and at least one of the independent
variables
proposed in the regression model.
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
7
PART IV
TESTS OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INDIVIDUAL REGRESSION PARAM ETERS
A test for t he significance of an individual parameters is important because it tells us
not only w hether there is evidence t hat variable
(
= 1,…,
)
has a linear
relationship with Y but also whet her there is stat istical evidence that variable
has
explanatory power with respect to the dependent variable .
Tests of the Significance of Individual Regression Parameters
HYPOTHESIS TESTING PROCESS:
STEP 01: Determine t he null and alt ernative hypo theses:
(Note: They are two tailed-testing)
(1)
:
=
0
:
0
(2)
:
=
0
:
0
(k)
:
=
0
:
0
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
8
STEP 02: Comput e the test statistic value
(
/
)
and t he crit ical values
(
/
)
based on the level of significance
+ Sit uation 01: If , we use
(
+ 1
)
< 30 
For test
(
= 1,…,
)
, t he test st at istic value:
=
(
)
At the level of significance
(
)
, the critical values:
±
= ±
,
( )
+ Sit uation 02: If , we use
(
+ 1
)
30 
For test
(
= 1,…,
)
, t he test st at istic value:
=
(
)
At the level of significance
(
)
, the critical values:
±
= ±
󰇡
󰇢
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
9
STEP 03: CONCLUSION
At the level of significance, for each test,
+ Sit uat ion 01: We cannot reject
since
[
−
,
]
or
[
−
,
]
For the instance that t he null hypot hesis is true t hat t he slope
par ameter of
is non significant and no linear relationship exists
between the dependent variable and the independent variable
+ Sit uat ion 02: We can reject
since
[
−
,
]
or
[
−
,
]
For the instance that we can reject the null hypothesis, t he variable
is significant. It m eans that t here is stat ist ical evidence t hat variable
has a linear relationship w ith and explanat ory power wit h respect to
the dependent variable.
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
10
Example: (Case of M ultiple Regression Analysis)
PROBLEM 01: (The Form of M ult iple-Choice Questions)
The sample data size 12 taken from four populat ions. The SPSS output for regression
analysis is as follow s which are missing some values:
n = 12 1 = 3, k = 4
ANOVA
M odel Sum of Squares Df M ean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 80.117 3 26.706 56.700 0.000
Residual 0.471 3.768 8
Total 83.885 11
a Predict ors: (Co nst ant ), X1, X2, X3
b Dependent Variable: Y
Coefficients
M odel Coefficient s Std. Error t Sig.
1 (Constant ) 45.56 5.674
X1 2.754 0.775 0.0075 3.5535
X2 3.56 1.107 0.0123 3.2159
X3 1.85 1.065 0.1206 1.7371
Dependent Variable: Y = 0.05
1. Fill in the ANOVA table and coefficients table by the relevant values at the suit cell.
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
11
2. Com ment on t he result of Regression:
SOLUSION
:
=
=
= 0
:  ℎ
(
= 1,2,3
)
 
Since t he test stat ist ic value is to o large
(
F
= 56.7
)
, w e can strongly reject at all H
level of significance. It means that based on the ANOVA t able for regression model
and t he hypot hesis test ing, we have enough evidence to pr ove that t here is a
regression relat ionship bet ween the dependent variable Y and the independent
variables Xi.
3. Using = 0.05, X3 is a signif icant predictor : (1 point )
a. True
b. False
SOLUTION: 3b. False
H
: β
= 0
H
: β
0
Based on t he table of coefficient s, the p-value is lar ge, that is, the t est stat istic value
falls in t he non-rejection region. So, we cannot reject at 0.05 level of significance.
H
It means t hat based on t he table and t he hypothesis testing, we can believe t hat the
variable X3 is not significant predictor .
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
12
4. What is this model predict with X1=10, X2=15, X3=50?
a. 160
b. 219
c. 238
d. Other
SOLUTION: 4b. 219
Based on the table o f coefficient s, we can est im ate the multiple regression model f or
pr edictor as followings:
Y
= 45.560 + 2.754X
+ 3.56X
+ 1.85X
Y
= 45.560 + 2.754 × 10 + 3.56 × 15 + 1.85 × 15 = 219
5. Com pute t he value of R: 97.700%
SOLUTION
R =
SSR
SST
=
80.117
83.885
= 0.977 = 97.700%
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
13
PROBLEM 02: (The Form of Writing Questions)
A grocery st ore forecasts the monthly demand (Y) for their products using mult iple-
regression. Three independent var iables used are X
1
, X
2
, and X
3
. The data for last 12 months
of the year 2010 are collected. The regression results are shown below:
ANOVA table:
Source SS df M S F
Regression
Residual Error
Total 625.667
Coefficients
Predictors Coefficients S.E. of coefficients t
Const ant -29.743 12.903
X1 1.104 0.283
X2 1.106 0.205
X3 -0.169 0.198
R
2
= 94.76%. Level of significance is α = 0.05.
1. Fill up the ANOVA table; give t he com ments on relat ionships among variables.
SOLUTION
Source SS df M S F
Regression 593.132 3 197.711 48.615
Residual Error 32.535 8 4.067
Total 625.667 11
R
= 1


or SSE = SST
(
1 R
)
= 625.667
(
1 0.948
)
= 32.535
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
14
:
=
=
= 0
:  ℎ
(
= 1,2,3
)
 
Since the test statistic value is too large
(
F
= 48.615
)
, w e can strongly reject at H
all level of significance. It means that based on the ANOVA table for regression
model and the hypothesis t esting, w e have enough evidence to prove t hat t here is a
regression relat ionship between t he dependent variable Y and the independent
variables
X
(
i = 1,2,3
)
.
2. Write the regression equation. What predict or sho uld be removed from the equation?
SOLUTION
Predictors Coefficients S.E. of coefficients t
Const ant -29.743 12.903
X1 1.104 0.283 3.901
X2 1.106 0.205 5.395
X3 -0.169 0.198
0.854
From the t able, w e can set up the regression equat ion as followings:
Y = 29.743 + 1.104X
+ 1.106X
0.169X
+ ε
To test w het her t he variables of t he regression modal are signif icant , w e have to
conduct the t-test of individual regression paramet ers.
Our null and alternat ive hypothesizes of each variable:
:
β
=
0
:
β
0
:
β
=
0
:
β
0
H
:
β
=
0
H
:
β
0
International University
IU
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com
Stat ist ics for Business | Chapt er 11: M ult iple Regression
15
Based on the table o f coefficient s, we can compute the t est stat ist ic value of each
variable as follow ings:
t
=
b
0
s
(
b
)
=
1.104
0.283
= 3.901
t
=
b
0
s
(
b
)
=
1.106
0.205
= 5.395
t
=
b
0
s
(
b
)
=
0.169
0.198
= 0.854
df = n
(
k + 1
)
= 8
α= 0.05, / 2 = 0.05/ 2 = 0.025
The crit ical value:
± t
= ± t
,/
= ± t
,.
= ± 2.306
Thus, at 0.05 level of signif icance, for the instance of and
X
X
, w e can reject H
.
On t he other hand, we cannot r eject t he null hypothesis of since
X
t
belon g t o
the non-r ejection region. It means t hat based on t he hypot hesis testing, we have
enough evidence t o prove t hat the var iables
X
and X
are significan t. How ever, X
is not signif icant and should be rem oved from t he regression equation. And w e
should conduct the multiple regression model again.
| 1/15

Preview text:

International University IU
STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS [IUBA] CHAPTER 11 M ULTIPLE REGRESSION STRUCTURE OF PAPER
PART I - M ULTIPLE REGRESSION M ODEL
PART II - M EASURES OF PERFORM ANCE OF A REGRESSION M ODEL AND THE ANOVA TABLE
PART III - THE F – TEST OF A M ULTIPLE REGRESSION M ODEL
PART IV - TESTS OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INDIVIDUAL REGRESSION PARAM ETERS n io s s re g e R le ltip u : M 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 1
International University IU PART I
M ULTIPLE REGRESSION M ODEL
The populat ion r egression m odel of a dependent variable  on a set of  independent
var iables ,,… , is given by
 =  +  +  + ⋯ +  + 
w here  is t he  intercept of the regression surface and each ,  = 1,… , is the slope
of t he regression sur face – som et im es called t he response sur face – w it h respect t o var iable . M odel Assum ptions:
1. For each observat ion , t he er ror t erm  is normally distribut ed wit h mean zero and standard
deviat ion  and is independent of the error terms associated wit h all ot her observations. That is,
~ (0,) for all  = 1,2,…, independent of ot her errors. n
2. In t he cont ext of regression analysis, t he var iables  io
 are considered fix quantit ies, although s s
in t he cont ext of correlat ional analysis, t hey are random variab les. In any case, re g 
   ℎ  . When we assume that  are fixed quantities, we are e R
assum ing t hat w e have realizat ion of  varibles  and that the only randomness in  comes le from t he error t erm . ltip u : M 1 r 1
The Est imat ed Regression Relat ionship te ap
The est im at ed regression relat ionship is h C s |
 =  +  +  + ⋯ +  es sin u
w here  is t he predicted value of , the value lying on t he estimated regression surface. r B
The t erm s ,  = 0,…,, are the least-squares estimates of the population regression s fo par am et er s . istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 2
International University IU PART II
M EASURES OF PERFORM AM CE OF A REGRESSION M ODEL AND THE ANOVA TABLE
M ean Square Error ( )
St andard Error of Estimate ( )
 and  are measures of how well the regression fits the data   =  −  = √ ( + )
M ultiple Correlation Coefficient ( )
M ult iple Coefficient of Det erm inat ion ( )
Adjusted M ult iple Coefficient of Det erm inat ion
(  )
, , and  are measures of how well the regression model fits the data. In other n
w ords, t hey m easure t he per cent age of var iat ion in t he dependent var iable explained io s
by t he indepen dent var iables  sre g e
 M ult iple Correlat ion Coefficient R le ltip  =  u : M
 M ult iple Coefficient of Determination 1 r 1   te  = ap h
 =  −  C  s |
Adjusted M ult iple Coefficient of Determination es sin
/ [ − ( + )]  −  u  =  − =  − ( − ) r B / ( − )  − ( + ) s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 3
International University IU
ANOVA Table for M ultiple Regression M odel Sum of Squares M ean Square F. ratio Source of Variat ion  ( ) ( ) () Regression      = ()   =  Error    − ( + 1)  = ( )  − ( + 1) Tot al   − 1 ( ) n io s s re g e R le ltip u : M 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 4
International University IU PART III
THE F – TEST OF A M ULTIPLE REGRESSION M ODEL
F – test of a mult iple regression model is a st at ist ical hypot hesis test for the existence
of a linear relat ionship bet ween and any of the 
F – test of a M ultiple Regression M odel
HYPOTHESIS TESTING PROCESS: STEP 01:
Det er mine t he nu ll and alt ernat io n hypot hesis:
 =  =  =  = ⋯ =  = 
 =    ( = ,…,)  STEP 02:
Const r uct t he ANOVA Table f or t he m ult iple regression m odel n Sum of Squares M ean Square F. ratio io s Source of Variat ion  s ( ) ( ) () re g Regression   e    = R ()   =  le Error  ltip   − ( + 1)  = ( u )  − ( + 1) Tot al : M   − 1 1 ( ) r 1 te ap h STEP 03:
Com put e t he t est st at ist ic value (  C
) (based on the ANOVA table) and t he s |
cr it ical value ( ) (based on the level of significance) es sin The t est st at ist ic value: u r B  s fo
 =  −  =  istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 5
International University IU
At t he level of significance, t he cr it ical value:
 = ,,() STEP 04: CONCLUSION
+ Sit uat ion 01: We cannot reject t he null hypo t hesis  since  < 
For t he inst ance t hat t he null hypo t hesis is t r ue, no linear r elat ionship
exist s bet w een t he dependent var iable  and any of t he independent
var iables  in the proposed regression model.
+ Sit uat ion 02: We can reject t he null hypot hesis  since  > 
For t he inst ance t hat w e can reject t he null hypot hesis, t her e is
st at ist ical evidence t o conclude t hat a regr ession r elat ion ship exist s
bet w een t he dependent var iable  and at least one of the independent
var iables  proposed in the regression model. n io s s re g e R le ltip u : M 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 6
International University IU PART IV
TESTS OF THE SIGNIFICANCE OF INDIVIDUAL REGRESSION PARAM ETERS
A test for t he significance of an individual parameters is important because it tells us
not only whether there is evidence that variable  ( = 1, …, ) has a linear
relationship w it h Y but also whet her there is st at istical evidence t hat variable
 has
explanat ory power wit h respect to the dependent variable
.
Tests of the Significance of Individual Regression Paramet ers
HYPOTHESIS TESTING PROCESS: STEP 01:
Det er mine t he nu ll and alt ernat ive hypo t heses:
(Not e: They a re t w o t ailed-test ing) (1) :  = 0 :  ≠ 0 n (2)  io :  = 0 s s :  ≠ 0 re g e R … … le ltip (k)  u :  = 0 :  ≠ 0 : M 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 7
International University IU STEP 02:
Com put e t he t est st at ist ic value ( / ) and the critical values ( / )
based on t he level of signif icance
+ Sit uation 01: If  − ( + 1) < 30, w e use  − 
For t est  ( = 1, …, ), t he test st atistic value:    −   =  ( )
At t he level of significance ( ) , the critical values: ±  = ±  ,()
+ Sit uation 02: If  − ( + 1) ≥ 30, w e use  − 
For t est  ( = 1, …, ), t he test st atistic value:  −  n  = io ( s ) s re g
At t he level of significance ( ) , the critical values: e R le ±  = ± 󰇡 ltip 󰇢 u : M 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 8
International University IU STEP 03: CONCLUSION
At t he level of significance, for each t est ,
+ Sit uat ion 01: We cannot reject  since  ∈ [−,] or  ∈ [−,]
For t he inst ance t hat t he null hypot hesis is t r ue t hat t he slope
par am et er of  is non – significant and no linear relationship exists
bet w een t he dependent var iable  and the independent variable 
+ Sit uat ion 02: We can reject  since  ∉ [−, ] or  ∉ [−,]
For t he inst ance t hat w e can r eject t he nu ll h ypot hesis, t he var iable 
is significant . It m eans t hat t her e is st at ist ical evidence t hat variable 
has a linear r elat ionship w it h  and explanat ory pow er wit h respect t o t he dependent var iable. n io s s re g e R le ltip u : M 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 9
International University IU
Example: (Case of M ultiple Regression Analysis)
PROBLEM 01: (The Form of M ultiple-Choice Questions)
The sam ple dat a size 12 t aken fr om f our populat ions. The SPSS out p ut for regression
analysis is as f ollow s w h ich ar e m issin g som e values: n = 12, k = 4 − 1 = 3 ANOVA M odel Sum of Squares Df M ean Square F Sig. 1 Regression 80.117 3 26.706 56.700 0.000 Residual 3.768 8 0.471 Tot al 83.885 11
a Predict or s: (Co nst ant ), X1, X2, X3 b Dependent Variable: Y Coefficient s n M odel Coefficient s Std. Error t Sig. io s s 1 (Const ant ) 45.56 5.674 re g X1 2.754 0.775 3.5535 0.0075 e R X2 3.56 1.107 3.2159 0.0123 le X3 1.85 1.065 1.7371 0.1206 ltipu Depen dent Var iable: Y = 0.05 : M 1
1. Fill in the ANOVA table and coefficients table by the relevant values at the suit cell. r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 10
International University IU
2. Comment on t he result of Regression: SOLUSION
:  =  =  = 0
:   ℎ  ( = 1,2,3)  
Since t he t est st at ist ic value is t o o large ( F = 56.7), we can strongly reject H at all 
level of signif icance. It m eans t hat based on t he ANOVA t able for regression m odel
and t he hypot hesis t est ing, w e have enough evidence t o pr ove t hat t her e is a
regression r elat ionship bet w een t he depen dent var iable Y and t he indepen dent var iables Xi.
3. Using  = 0.05, X3 is a significant predictor : (1 point ) a. True b. False SOLUTION : 3b. False H n : β = 0 io s s H: β ≠ 0 re g e
Based on t he t able of coef ficient s, t he p-value is lar ge, t hat is, t he t est st at ist ic value R le
falls in t he no n-r eject ion region. So, w e canno t reject H at 0.05 level of significance.  ltip u
It m eans t hat based on t he t able and t he hypot hesis t est ing, w e can believe t hat t he : M
var iable X3 is not signif icant predict or . 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 11
International University IU
4. What is this model predict with X1=10, X2=15, X3=50? a. 160 b. 219 c. 238
d. Other …………………………………………… SOLUTION : 4b. 219
Based on t he t able o f coeff icient s, w e can est im at e t he m ult iple regression m odel f or pr edict or as fo llow ings: Y
 = 45.560 + 2.754X + 3.56X + 1.85X Y
 = 45.560 + 2.754 × 10 + 3.56 × 15 + 1.85 × 15 = 219
5. Compute the value of R: 97.700% SOLUTION
R = SSR = 80.117 = 0.977 = 97.700% n SST 83.885 io s s re g e R le ltip u : M 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 12
International University IU
PROBLEM 02: (The Form of W riting Questions)
A gr ocery st ore forecast s t he m ont hly demand (Y) for t heir pr oduct s using m ult iple-
regr ession. Thr ee independent var iables used ar e X1, X2, and X3. The dat a for last 12 mont hs
of t he year 2010 are collect ed. The regression result s are show n below : ANOVA table: Source SS df M S F Regression Residual Err or Tot al 625.667 Coefficient s Predict ors Coefficient s S.E. of coefficient s t Const ant -29.743 12.903 X1 1.104 0.283 X2 1.106 0.205 X3 -0.169 0.198 n io s
R2 = 94.76%. Level of significance is α = 0.05. s re g e R le
1. Fill up the ANOVA table; give the comment s on relationships among variables. ltip u SOLUTION : M 1 r 1 Source SS df M S F te Regression 593.132 3 197.711 48.615 ap h Residual Err or 32.535 8 4.067 C Tot al 625.667 11 s | es sin u R = 1 or SSE = SST( 1 r B − 
− R) = 625.667(1 − 0.948) = 32.535  s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 13
International University IU
:  =  =  = 0
:   ℎ  ( = 1,2,3)  
Since t he t est st at ist ic value is t o o lar ge ( F = 48.615), we can strongly reject H at 
all level of signif icance. It m eans t hat based on t he ANOVA t ab le for regression
m odel an d t he hypot hesis t est ing, w e have enough evidence t o pr ove t hat t here is a
regression relat ionship bet w een t he dependent variable Y and the independent var iables X (i = 1,2,3) .
2. Write the regression equation. What predict or should be removed from the equation? SOLUTION Predict ors Coefficient s S.E. of coefficient s t Const ant -29.743 12.903 X1 1.104 0.283 3.901 X2 1.106 0.205 5.395 X3 -0.169 0.198  0.854 n io
From t he t ab le, w e can set up t he regression equat ion as f ollow in gs: s s re g Y = e
−29.743 + 1.104X + 1.106X − 0.169X + ε R le ltip u
To t est w het her t he var iables of t he regressio n m odal are signif icant , w e have t o : M 1
conduct t he t -t est of individual regressio n par am et ers. r 1 te
Our nu ll and alt ernat ive hypot hesizes of each variable: ap h C H : β = 0 H : β = 0 H: β = 0 s | H : β ≠ 0 H : β ≠ 0 H: β ≠ 0 es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 14
International University IU
Based on t he t able o f coeff icient s, w e can com put e t he t est st at ist ic value of each var iable as fo llow ings: b − 0 1.104 t  = = 3.901  =  s( b) 0.283 b − 0 1.106 t  =  = = 5.395  s( b) 0.205 b − 0 −0.169 t  =  = = −0.854  s( b) 0.198 df = n − (k + 1) = 8
α = 0.05,/ 2 = 0.05/ 2 = 0.025
The crit ical value: ± t  = ± t,/  = ± t,. = ± 2.306
Thus, at 0.05 level of signif icance, f or t he inst ance of X and  X, we can reject H. n
On t he ot her hand, w e cannot r eject t he null hypot hesis of X since  t  belong t o  io s s
t he non-r eject ion r egion. It m eans t hat based on t he hypot hesis t est ing, w e have re g
enough evidence t o prove t hat t he var iables X X e
 and X are significant. However,  R
is not signif icant and should be rem oved fr om t he r egression equat ion. An d w e le
should conduct t he mu lt iple regression m odel again. ltip u : M 1 r 1 te ap h C s | es sin u r B s fo istic tat S
Powered by statisticsforbusinessiuba.blogspot.com 15