Preview text:
CH NG 19 M c tiêu c a ch ng Nh ng lý thuy t m i v Chu k Kinh Doanh ! kinh t v mô "# $ %&' () * $+ ,- b n th n m ' $ . '/ /0 12 N. Gregory Mankiw
acro Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com
(d ch và s a theo bài gi ng c a Ron Cronovich)
m © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 1
Lý thuy t Chu k Kinh doanh Th c t
Kinh t h c Robinson Crusoe 1. 3 4 )56%7 4 ) 8 5 E % $ F:1 ?04 GH 9 (I 9 1 # : ; <=6%7 4 ) 8 ( H6 C ,) 0) 0)/ 4) 5 ) J 9 0 = 7 ( >1. ? 71 K4 0L 0)/= ? @ 1 ) $ @ 04 A 6 B 16 3 9 F $ %3 =4 C C 2 9 ) )50 @ 1 ? % $ M 3 8 3N04 GHO M 2 3 8 3N O 3 D0C B ; $ % $ K4 0L ) % % 2 5 1 =4 C1P6 0)/ 1 3 C J CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 2 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 3
Nh ng cú s c trong n n kinh t Crusoe
Nh ng bi n ng kinh t là nh ng ph n
ng t i u i v i các cú s c Q 32 4)JKRS0T U > * /)"# $ %&' () * $6 EU 0 H 3 3 @ 0)/ ) $ ) % $ @ D C VB 1 @ 0)/ U ! $ W $ ) % $ @ 0)/J 7 1 0C ? F 0 3 8 3 7 < (X A $ U 0 H ) Y)2 ) 4)JKRS0T 41! 3 D0 D C % 1) 1 CJ* J -Y) 1 41 U 0 H6() <6 0)/( 1 % D G4 G ; ? ) 3 8 3 7 (I J $ @ 04 A 6 B 16 Z . 6 416 > B 3 $ %3 =4 C 2 W )Y ) $ % Y) C 2 3 D0 D C J VB 1 41! R) % ( ? 3 3 )P 26 0)/ $ W ( ? F J CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 4 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 5 1
Nh ng tranh lu n v lý thuy t RBC Th tr ng lao ng [ :1 . C @ ! ! * /)# $ ,- 6 ? ) 0^ 0 3 E B 1 =4 3 = ) /) ? 7=4 5 B @ ) \ @ ) B 5 E % $ 4 D0C 2 0) 2 J )50 U 0 H ) 8 5\ * C 3 ?%& ] 2 N_ + O * : ; <= ) 8 5\ _ * 3 4 )5 ) 8 ` 5\ D F @ 7 ) : ) ?%&_ N B _ ] H 4 3 W ? \ 5O ) ?%&` N ` O J CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 6 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 7 Th tr ng lao ng Các cú s c n ng su t * /)# $ ,- 6 * /)# $ ,- 63 D0C U 0 H M 3 D0C $ C 2 3 $ % $J 3 ?%& M ? ) =4 ] 3 F 1 2 )=4 3 3 ) D0C U 0 H! :=4 3 0 M % $ B 1 04 A $ @ 04 A 1 4 ) % E ?= =3 <= < ] 4 ; AJ M ) % 5 41 81 C 2 $ 3 ?%& "# $ ,- 1 # ] 0C( a))b : M H B= )> 3 ?%&0 )3 ) 204 A J"B @ $ % B : D % \ CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 8 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 9 S d Solow và t ng tr ng s n l ng Các cú s c công ngh % n10 m E ?@ # $ ,- <= < 8 T ng tr ng s n l ng ] 0 ) U > 6 04 A 0C( a))b ] ) H 3 D0C U 0 H 1 4 . @ 3 $ 2 % $J 0 E ?= =3 ) ] 0C( a))b ) ? A =4 3 ; -2 S d Solow %& =4 3 B 0 J
-41945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 N m CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 10 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 11 2
Tính trung l p c a ti n S linh ho t c a ti n l ng và giá c E ?= =3 ,- ) ] 0 8 "# $ ,- 4 W ] 3 41 U > 51 =3 4 ) ) )56() < W ? $ 3 ?%& : H B= ) ] J 04 A H=J E ?@ ,- <= < ] 1 8 @ 3 4 ) $ E ?@ ,- =4 5 ] 2 % . C 2 B 4 3 ) ] 0 ! ; $ % $J 9 K4 0L04 A A %& . 0T 41J c. d ; 4 W ] 3 4 )5 E 0T 41 7 H 3 2 # $ % $ 1 J ]1 =4 50 41 0D A ( E ?= =3 ] 0 8 ; 2 J @ 3 4 : 7 4 ; ) H B=% B ; % <= @ J CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 12 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 13 Kinh t h c Keynes M i Chi phí th c n nh và nh h ng ngo i hi n c a t ng c u c $ 3 % $ ] $ VB F 3 4 > )5 B! ) 8 5 @ 04 A B a 8 41 3 @ 1 () B=% $ ) 1 =4 3 () B %e f 1 3 41 N1P (I eO J B 6 () G4 Q 1 U $ 1 U > 3 4 8J 63 () B=%3 :AJ ! = ; 3N ;(X E @ ? =3'/ /0 = ; 12 )P = ; g2 C 8 4 ; ) ; 8 L 4 3) 312O @ 3 4 ] 3 G/1 Gh ' : = ; 6 3 4 8 : 7 % $ 1 @ B F C C 2 3 () B=1P (I : 3J : 7 % :A ) ) % $J CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 14 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 15
Suy thoái do th t b i trong h p tác Tính không ng b c a ti n l ng và giá c * ) 3 ?%&0 )3604 A H=63 ) *H 4 3 4 % F > I W H B=6 3 13 iJ 1 ? 71J E$ H 4 3 () B= ? ) *; % k @ 0 F 41 3 @ . % $0T > 5 3 l 3 4 % $ )1 3 ) (X J 1 3 <1 5=% : J * 6% () B= )P ? ) gi() B= ? ) $ ] % j ) 8 41 3 @ 1 $ % . 41 3( @ 1 3 4 $ ] 3 () B= )P ? ) C @ .0T H= ) 1 %)4 ? H
%3 0T 8 41 3 @ .JR) <6 3 4 0T( W JQ % $ .1 m n ) B 41 >1 ) 0 )3 $= X %h)( J 3J CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 16 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 17 3
Nh ng lý do chính giá c c!ng nh"c: k t
qu t# các cu c i u tra các nhà qu n lý
K t lu n: tình hình nghiên c!u _J* H 5 ) A= 3! 3 () B=% YG/1 Gh ? =3 36 A 3 () B=%3 8 41 2 GH 08 C 2 B %&% `J 3 () B= )Y B U 3 ) 2% =; () ! "# $ %&' () * $ U "# $ '/ /0 g2J oJ 3 () B= ; ; %3 @ 04 =p1 6 ;(X H A 6(W X6 ' =4 1. % $ ]1 ) m ) 1 ) ? =3 J qJE A= k 1! 3 () B= 1 )4 < W 36:T % r; ] sC E %$ A=# 2%3 J @ 4 ? =3 7 tJE A= k u C W 3 4 ( $ % $J vJ =; CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 18 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 19 Tóm t"t ch ng Tóm t"t ch ng _J "# $ %&% () $ oJ' $ . '/ /0 12 4 W ; )5 ) 4) @ H= < 1 C 3 4 F $ () 3 D0C U 0 H C 8 4 ; ; 8 @ $ C % G4 3 3 4 2= ; % $ 1 6 D0C ) k1 `JE 71 Y @ # $ ,- =; 0 $ 3 ?%& @ ) H 5 ) A= 3 ; . @ 3 D0C U 0 H ; % k @ 3 ; <= @ 4 ; )5 @ 3 4 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 20 CHAPTER 19
Advances in Business Cycle Theory slide 21 4
