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The Indian economy has experienced significant changes in its export structure, especially after adopting the export promotion outward-oriented development strategy in 1991. Petroleum exports have experienced a sudden rise, especially in the first decade of the 21 century, and became the second-largest export item in India after engineering products. The study examined the growth and st structural dynamics of petroleum export performance in India during 1990-2019. Tài liệu giúp bạn tham khảo, ôn tập và đạt kết quả cao. Mời bạn đọc đón xem !
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Indian J Econ Dev, 2023, 19(4), 776-785 Manuscript No. IJED-23070 https://doi.org/10.35716/IJED- Impact Factor: 0.2 JCR 2022 23070
Petroleum Export Performance in India: Analysis of Growth and Structural Dynamics
Kumari Shalu , Kulwinder Singh , Simran Kaur and Pooja Sikka1 2* 3 4
1Kumari Shalu, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Govt. Degree College, Nalagarh, Solan-174 101
(Himachal Pradesh), Assistant Professor, University Business School, Panjab University, Chandigarh-160 014 2
(Chandigarh), Assistant Professor, Department of Evening Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh -160 014 3
(Chandigarh) and Assistant Professor Economics, Panjab University Regional Centre, Ludhiana -141 001 (Punjab4 ).
*Email of the Corresponding Author: ksb_eco@pu.ac.in Received: February 15, 2022
Revision Submitted: October 02, 2023
Revision Accepted: November 17, 2023 ABSTRACT
The Indian economy has experienced significant changes in its export structure, especially after adopting the export promotion outward-oriented
development strategy in 1991. Petroleum exports have experienced a sudden rise, especially in the first decade of the 21 century, and became
the second-largest export item in India after engineering products. The study examined the growth and st structural dynamics of petroleum export
performance in India during 1990-2019. It was found that petroleum product exports in India grew outstandingly during the study period,
registering higher growth than imports and the production of these products. India outperformed the world and the majority of giant petroleum
exporters in the global export market. The findings also confirmed the high degree of diversification in the composition and direction of
petroleum exports. Petroleum trade in India also witnessed a high degree of intra-industry trade. Favourable government policies have
contributed to the occurrence of this phenomenon. Consequently, India has become one of the leading petroleum product exporters despite its
lack of global crude oil and refining technology. The existence of growth instability in these exports requires effective intervention at the policy level. Keywords
Composition, direction, growth, petroleum exports. JEL Codes F01, F14, F40, F62. INTRODUCTION 2015). Considering
In an economy, changes in economic policies result in structural the influence of
changes, and as a result, the foreign trade of that economy these changes in
experiences structural changes (Singh, 2011; Singh et al., 2018; Singh the domestic and
et al., 2022). The vigorous changes took place in the foreign trade global economic
structure in India with the advent of the export-promotion strategy, environment, the
especially since the implementation of economic reforms in India foreign trade
and the WTO establishment, accompanied by the active involvement structure in India
of India in regional trading agreements (RTAs) (Singh, 2014; Mehta, has undergone 776 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Shalu et al.: Petroleum export performance in India
substantial changes that have led to perceptible changes in the industry, which
growth, composition, and direction of its exports (Matore & Sagar, indulged more in 2015; Sinha, 2016). exports (Ministry of
Export growth is an essential prerequisite for achieving economic Petroleum and
growth and development objectives, and India has achieved it Natural Gas, 2018-
successfully, particularly since 1991 (Singh, 2011). India has also 19). Government
experienced a shift in its trade patterns from major textile exports to spending in India
gems, jewellery, engineering goods, mineral oil, and petroleum products has always
(Singh & Singla, 2012; Azhar, 2021). Besides this, the non-traditional remained
export items became more competitive than the predominantly favourable to
traditional items in the world after liberalization and became an essential expanding
source of export earnings (Kapur, 1991; Morse, 1990). petroleum
The sudden rise in petroleum exports is a crucial change in export industries, mainly
structure, especially since the 2000s in India (Bhat, 2015; Singh, contributing to the
Copyright ©2023 The Society of Economics and Development, except certain content provided by third parties.
2014a). Crude oil is a primary raw material in petroleum refining growth of the Gross
industries (Wani et al., 2015). As a result, the demand for crude oil Domestic Product
increased worldwide because of the massive demand for refined (GDP) (Kader,
petroleum products. However, India met 80 per cent of the demand 1980). The Indian
for crude oil and products through imports and 20 per cent from government
domestically established PSU companies (Honavar, 1974; Gulati, introduced the New
1975; Singh et al., 2018). India has been a major oil-importing Exploration
country, but since 1999–2000, the net import dependency on Licensing Policy
petroleum products in India has declined (Misra et al., 2005; Kumar (NELP) 1998 to et al., 2020). increase
In 2001-02, India became a net exporter of petroleum products exploration and
for the first time, and in 2004-05, exports of petroleum products production
occupied second place in export earnings after engineering goods activities to satisfy
(Chakrabarty & Chakravarty, 2012; Sheryl, 2012). Total and net domestic and
petroleum product exports from India amounted to US$ 34940 international
million and US$ 21303 million, respectively, in 2017-18. India has demand (Ministry
become the tenth-largest exporter of refined petroleum in the world of Petroleum and
(Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 2018-19). Petroleum Natural Gas, 2018-
products are among the top five export commodities in India (Sinha, 19). The
2016). According to the International Trade Statistics Yearbook, government has
2019, the largest export commodity in India was petroleum oils taken several steps
other than crude from 2017 to 2019 (United Nations, 2019). to enhance the
Petroleum products emerged as the star performer in the total exploration and
exports of the country during 2011-12, triggering a significant rise in production of the
the total exports (Taneja, 2013). The increase in petroleum price and oil and gas sector to
the robust expansion of the refining capacity of the Indian Petroleum drive robust
Industry has given impetus to the export of petroleum products from economic growth.
India (Kaur, 2012; Misra et al., 2005; Veeramani, 2012). The utmost Moreover, the
credit for massive refining capacity efforts goes to the reliance government has 777 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
allowed 100 per cent FDI in the oil and gas sector and enabled private
players to participate in exploration activities with Public Sector
Undertakings (PSUs) in the country's competitive landscape
(Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 201819). Three pricing
committees of petroleum products have recommended that the
petroleum sector in India still needs to mature enough to deliver
services in competitive markets. However, a tax rationalization
approach might be beneficial to become competitive (Sethi, 2010).
Production and exports of petroleum products by refineries and
fractionators in India have been continuously on a steady rise and
segregated into various major products: diesel, petrol, naphtha,
aviation turbine fuel, and fuel oil (Ministry of Petroleum and Natural
Gas, 2018-19). It is expected that crude oil import dependency in
India will rise 94 per cent in 2030, ceteris paribus, which indicates a
sharp rise in the demand for petroleum products in the coming
years. (International Energy Agency, 2002). Although petroleum
products have emerged as the principal export commodity in India,
especially since 2000, the phenomenon has yet to be reported in the
literature in a sophisticated manner.
The objectives of the study were:
i. to examine the growth patterns of petroleum product exports in India from 1991 to 2019,
ii. to analyze the structural dynamics of petroleum product exports in India from 1991 to 2019, and
iii. to explore intra-industry trade in India's petroleum sector from 1991 to 2019. METHODOLOGY
This study analyzed the performance of petroleum exports in India in
terms of changes in their growth and structure during three decades from
1990-91 to 2019-20. It had also presented a comparative analysis of India's
petroleum export growth compared to other major petroleum-exporting
countries and the world. The three decades covered under study were
bifurcated into three sub-periods decade-wise to exhibit the changes in
the growth, composition, and direction of petroleum exports. Statistical
tools such as averages, percentages, and growth rates were used for this
analysis as required. The growth rate was calculated using the exponential
function. The growth rates were calculated using Statistical Package for
Social Sciences (SPSS) software.
Further, this study had also shed light on the intraindustry trade of
petroleum products in India using the Grubel Lloyd Intra-Industry Trade
Index. This index was used to explain that India exports and imports
similar petroleum products. Grubel Lloyd Intra-Industry Trade Index (GLI) is defined as GLIi = 1-|Xi -Mi |/ Xi +MiAB AB AB AB AB 778 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Indian J Econ Dev 19(4) December 2023 In the above equation,
imports, and total trade increased rapidly from 0.59,
X = i commodity's exports of country A to country Bth
0.68, and 0.63 per cent to 1.69, 2.51, and 2.10 per cent,
M = i commodity's imports of country A to country Bth respectively, over the three decades starting with 1990.
This study was entirely based on secondary data. The It was a significant achievement for India as it lacked the
required data for the study was taken from the supply of crude oil
Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, Reserve Bank Table 2. The relative share of India in world exports,
of India, Mumbai; Economics and Statistics Division,
imports, and total trade, 1990-2019
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India;
Indiastat database; World Integrated Trade Solutions
(WITS), World Bank etc. Data for petroleum exports of
India and other countries were obtained from the WITS
Comtrade Database at Standardized International Trade
Classification (SITC) Revision 1 and 2.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Growth Patterns of
Petroleum Product Exports in India
The growth patterns of exports, imports, and total
trade of India and the world from 1990 to 2019 are
presented in Table 1. In value terms, India's total trade,
exports, and imports had expanded multiple times
during the study period. However, imports had grown
well above exports in value and growth terms, except in
the third decade, where the value of imports was still
higher than exports. In terms of growth, exports
registered a higher growth rate (1.84 per cent) than
imports (1.20 per cent). During 1990-2019, Indian
exports registered a higher growth of 12.62 per cent,
whereas its imports grew by 14.07 per cent, and its total
trade grew by 13.44 per cent annually. During the same
period, the world's exports registered a growth of 7.00
per cent, which was significantly higher than the growth
of world imports (6.94 per cent) and total trade growth
(6.97 per cent). India achieved ambitious growth in its
exports, imports, and total trade during the period
under study, as the growth of Indian exports, imports,
and trade was much higher than that of the world (Table
1). However, the growth of Indian exports was
significantly lower than that of its imports, which was
quite disturbing in the case of merchandise trade in
India. Mehta (2015) and Singh et al. (2022) revealed
similar results and confirmed that implementing
economic reforms and opening up the Indian economy
had led to massive growth in foreign trade, exports, and imports in India.
The changes in India's relative share of world exports,
imports, and total trade during 1990-2019 is presented
in Table 2. The analysis confirmed that the relative share
of India in the world's petroleum product exports, 779 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Indian J Econ Dev 19(4) December 2023
(Per cent) fell sharply over the previous decade. Petroleum exports Decade Export Import Total
had achieved remarkable growth during the second First (1990-1999) 0.59 0.68 0.63
decade. In terms of the percentage share of petroleum
product exports in total exports of India, its share had Second (2000-2009) 0.95 1.30 1.13
significantly increased from 1.54 per cent in the first Third (2010-2019) 1.69 2.51 2.10
decade to 15.62 per cent in the third decade. Overall (1990-2019) 1.07 1.50 1.29
On the other hand, the share of petroleum imports
and the capital-intensive petroleum refining technology. in total imports of India had also increased from 23.2 to
Table 1. Growth of exports, imports, and total trade in India, 1990-2019
(Growth: Per cent, Value: $ billions) Particulars First (1990-99) Second (2000-09) Third (2010-19) Overall (1990-2019) India Export Value 26.7 100.4 293.2 140.1 Growth 9.66*** 20.42*** 1.84NS 12.62*** Import Value 31.5 146.3 441.5 206.4 Growth 10.41*** 25.58*** 1.20NS 14.07*** Trade Value 58.2 246.8 735.2 346.7 Growth 10.06*** 23.37** 1.45*** 13.44*** World Export Value 4477 9953 17340 10590 Growth 6.77*** 11.38*** 0.87 NS 7.00 * Import Value 4568 10153 17532 10751 Growth 6.55*** 11.4*** 0.92 NS 6.94***
Absolute values are represented in ten yearly aggregates.
*** Significant at 1 and 5 per cent level. NS = Non-significant.
This achievement was attributable to economies of 28.4 per cent during the same period, but its share had
scale in the production of refined petroleum products fallen in the third decade. It is worth mentioning that the
and their rising global demand.
percentage share of imports had remained all-time
The perusal of Table 3 revealed that India had higher than the exports. However, the growth of
experienced a rise in the value of its petroleum exports, petroleum exports was much faster than imports during
imports, and trade during 1990-2019. Petroleum the second decade and overall, in thirty years. However,
exports in India had registered a growth rate of 25.64 export growth had remained prone to severe instability.
per cent, considerably higher than petroleum imports,
registering a growth of 14.79 per cent from 1990 to
2019. Decadewise, petroleum export growth (43.71 per
cent) was higher than that of imports only in the second
decade (27.23 per cent), while imports were valued
more than exports in value terms. In the first decade,
petroleum exports did not grow much, marked negative
growth, whereas imports grew positively. Similarly,
exports were negative in the third decade, and imports
*** and ** Significant at 1 and 5 per cent levels. 780 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Shalu et al.: Petroleum export performance in India
The production of both crude oil and POL had
increased steadily, but the production of POL had
increased more than the crude oil in all decadal periods
of the study (Table 4). During the first decade, crude oil
production was 314 lakh tonnes, while the production
of POL was 584 lakh tonnes. Furthermore, till the third
Table 3. Growth of petroleum exports, imports, and trade in India, 1990-2019 Decade Values ($ billion) Growth rate (Per cent) Share in India (Per cent) Export Import Trade Export Import Trade Export Import Trade First (1990-1999) 0.36 7.39 7.75 -19.10 NS 7.08*** 6.19*** 1.54 23.2 13.3 Second (2000-2009) 13.15 45.90 59.05 43.71*** 27.23*** 30.01*** 10.20 29.29 21.07 Third (2010-2019) 46.53 127.85 174.38 -3.83 NS 1.97 NS -2.46*** 15.62 28.4 23.3 Overall (1990-2019) 20.01 60.38 80.40 25.64*** 14.79*** 16.10*** 9.12 26.96 19.21
*** Significant at 1 per cent level. NS: Non-significant.
Table 4. Volume growth of petroleum produ cts production, impo rts, and e xports in India, 1990 -2019 Decade Production Imports Exports POL Export/POL POL production Volume CGR Volume CGR Volume CGR Volume CGR Volume CGR First 314 1.63 NS 584 5.34*** 333 7.27*** 161 10.03*** 27 -13.61** 4.63 (1990- 1999) Second 332 0.42 NS 1313 6.68*** 1048 8.32*** 127 12.49*** 249 23.92*** 19.00 (2000- 2009) Third 364 -1.59* 2629 3.38*** 1989 3.83*** 263 12.85*** 634 0.66 NS 24.15 (2010- 2019) Overall 1010 0.69* 4526 6.95*** 3370 9.16*** 551 3.41*** 303 16.10*** 20.14 (1990- 2019)
Volume data are represented in lakh tonnes, and CGR: Compound growth rates are in percentages. POL
stands for Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants.
*** and ** Significant at 1 and 5 per cent levels. NS: Non-significant. 781 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Indian J Econ Dev 19(4) December 2023
decade, the production of POL quadrupled compared to rate (-16.56 per cent), while the world had registered a
crude oil. However, during the third decade, the growth growth of 4.00 per cent. In the second decade, the share
of crude oil production (-1.59 per cent) turned negative, increased, and the growth rate increased higher (45.30
and POL's production growth (3.38 per cent) reduced per cent) than the growth rate of world exports (18.09
over the previous decade. POL production (6.95 per per cent). This decadal period can be counted in favour
cent) had registered significantly higher growth than of India, reflecting its competitive strengths in the world
crude oil production (0.69 per cent) during 1991-2019. regarding the growth of its petroleum product exports.
It was viceversa in the case of crude oil imports (3.41 per In the third decade, the share increased more than in
cent) and POL (9.16 per cent) during the same period. the previous two decades but registered a negative
The export value of POL registered the highest growth growth (-3.15 per cent).
(16.10 per cent) compared to the production and
Similarly, world exports had also recorded negative imports of crude oil and POL.
growth. During 1990-2019, petroleum exports in India
Interestingly, POL export volume recorded the registered considerably higher growth (25.31 per cent)
highest growth during the second decade. In the first than world exports (10.04 per cent). Thus, it was
and third decades, its growth was meagre. Data also established that India had outperformed the world
showed that India had exported only 20.14 per cent of regarding the growth of its petroleum exports.
its POL production. This low level of exports was due to Following the trend, India can become more
the high domestic demand for POL products (Table 4). competitive in the coming times in exporting petroleum
Therefore, the results confirmed that the export volume products. Findings also revealed a high level of growth
of POL in India had achieved the highest growth in its instability in petroleum product export earnings in India
POL production and POL imports. It was a very during the study period, which needs serious attention
encouraging phenomenon in reducing its import at the policy level.
dependence. The results also indicated that 80 per cent
The petroleum export share and growth of major
of POL production was used for domestic needs, selected petroleum exporters vis-à-vis India during
significantly contributing to the country's growth and 19902019 are compared in Table 6. Data revealed that development.
Saudi Arabia had constituted the maximum share of
The growth of petroleum product exports in India petroleum products in the world exports, followed by
visà-vis the world during the study period is presented the Russian Federation, European Union (EU), Norway,
in Table 5. Data exhibited that India's relative share of and
the world's petroleum product exports had sharply Venezuela during the study period. In the first decade,
increased in all decadal periods of the study, although Saudi Arabia contributed a gigantic share of petroleum
growth experienced fluctuations. During the first products in the world exports, while in the second and
Table 5. Petroleum products exports growth (SITC-33) in India vis-a-vis world (Per cent) Period
Petroleum exports from India ($ Billion)
World petroleum exports ($ Billion) Share of India in world petroleum Value Growth Value Growth exports
1990-1999 0.38 -16.56 ** 233.46 4.00 ** 0.17 2000-2009 12.33 45.30 *** 1005.53 18.09 *** 0.99 2010-2019 46.38 -3.15NS 1843.45 -6.75 ** 2.54 1990-2019 19.69 25.31 *** 1027.48 10.04 *** 1.23 NS: Non-significant.
decade, India's relative share of world petroleum third decades, its share fell drastically. In contrast, the
exports was only 0.17 per cent with a negative growth share of Russian Federation exports had spurred much
*** and ** Significant at 1 and 5 per cent levels. 782 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Shalu et al.: Petroleum export performance in India
faster from the first to the third decade. The astounding
India recorded a 0.17 per cent share in the world
changes were observed from the first decade to the petroleum export market during 1990-99. In 2000-09,
third decade of the study period in the sense that the the share increased to 0.94 per cent, and in the third
EU, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and India had a negligible share of decade, the share rose to 2.39 per cent in world exports.
petroleum exports in the world during the first decade In thirty years, India had claimed a 1.17 per cent share
and till the third, its share had increased significantly. of petroleum product exports in the world's exports and
Countries such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the registered a growth of 25.31 per cent, which was the
United States (U.S.), Canada, Nigeria, the Korean highest among all major petroleum product exporting
Republic, and India had progressively registered a rising countries. However, the export growth of Saudi Arabia
share in world petroleum product exports from the first and Angola remained negative during the study period. to third decade.
As a result, their shares had fallen sharply from the first
Countries such as Norway, Kuwait, Netherlands, to the third decade. It was concluded that India had
Singapore, the United Kingdom (U.K.), and Mexico had improved its position in world petroleum exports and
registered a decline in their share in the world market achieved a place in the top 20 petroleum exporters.
from the first decade to the third decade. However, their India had made persistent, strenuous attempts to
export growth remained modest and positive. become one of the
Table 6. Growth of petroleum product exports (SITC-33) in India vis-à-vis selected countries, 1990-91 to 2019-20
(Value: Billion $; Share: Per cent) Countries 1990-1999 2000-09 2010-19 1990-2019 1990-2019 Value Share Value Share Value Share Value Share Growth Developed countries European Union* 0 0.00 53 4.85 110 5.78 318 5.31 9.04 *** Russian Fed* 19 7.04 102 9.06 216 11.20 136 9.62 12.77 *** United States 7 2.89 23 2.02 111 6.07 47 3.66 14.40 *** Canada 9 3.70 36 3.32 80 4.18 41 3.86 11.16 *** Norway 16 7.04 45 4.69 46 2.34 36 4.85 4.73** * Netherlands 8 3.64 26 2.40 60 3.16 31 3.07 9.67 *** United Kingdom 13 5.72 32 3.35 43 2.21 30 3.76 5.43 *** Developed countries Saudi Arabia 41 18.25 133 12.62 172 7.96 118 12.76 -14.71 ** UAE1 4 1.09 48 4.53 92 4.88 57 3.98 8.38 *** Kuwait 9 3.96 36 3.23 67 3.50 36 3.58 11.15 *** Nigeria@ 44 4.30 39 3.69 64 3.12 44 3.58 7.86 *** Singapore 9 3.91 27 2.37 58 3.02 31 3.10 9.23 *** Venezuela@ 14 6.07 40 4.04 76 3.09 35 4.76 10.20NS Iraq@ 0 0.00 29 2.62 71 3.33 47 2.93 12.58NS Iran, IR@ 14 5.35 32 4.24 59 3.23 41 3.97 7.63 *** Mexico 9 3.70 28 2.71 35 1.77 24 2.73 6.43 ***
1 Countries in case of which data is available at different periods.
Selected countries constitute 79 per cent of the share of petroleum products in the world.
*** and ** Significant at 1 and 5 per cent levels. NS: Non-significant. 783 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Indian J Econ Dev 19(4) December 2023 Korea, Rep. 3 1.19 16 1.50 43 2.27 21 1.66 15.13 *** Kazakhstan@ 2 0.31 18 1.49 42 2.13 24 1.57 17.40 *** India 0 0.17 12 0.94 46 2.39 20 1.17 25.31 *** Algeria 7 2.94 25 2.31 32 1.53 20 2.31 7.82 *** Angola@ 3 1.57 41 2.80 48 2.38 40 2.32 -3.51 ** Belgium@ 5 1.48 16 1.51 36 1.86 25 1.68 9.89 *** China 3 1.52 9 0.88 28 1.57 14 1.32 10.55 *** Oman 5 2.07 13 1.28 25 1.25 14 1.54 8.03 *** Qatar 3 1.24 13 1.14 24 1.18 13 1.18 10.31 *** Others@ 60 26.05 229 21.65 367 19.09 218 22.27 8.82 *** Grand total 233 100 1059 100 1953 100 1082 100 10.35 ***
*** and ** Significant at 1 and 5 per cent levels. 784 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Shalu et al.: Petroleum export performance in India
leading refined petroleum product exporters. The and FO had emerged as leading products among
favourable government policies and rising world petroleum exports during the study period. The findings
demand helped India to uplift itself in the competitive also indicated a rising comparative advantage of India in
environment of the petroleum export market. petroleum products exports, whose share had risen and
Composition of Petroleum Product Exports of India
vice-versa. Direction of Petroleum Products Exports in
The value, growth, and relative share of petroleum India
products in India during the study period are exhibited
The direction of petroleum exports from India during
in Table 7. The results revealed that Naphtha (87.27 per 1990-2019 is presented in Table 8. The results showed
cent) had the highest share among all exportable that India exports petroleum products to both
products, followed by MS, while other products had a developing and developed countries. The developed
negligible share except Others* during the first decade. countries, namely the United States, United Kingdom,
During the second decade, HSD (35.32 per cent) had the France, Australia, Belgium, and Mauritius, were the
highest share depicting the highly demanded product, major petroleum export destinations of India. During
followed by Naphtha, MS, ATF, FO, and Others*, while the study period, the developing countries, namely
LPG, SKO, Lubes, and Bitumen had the lowest share Singapore, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Brazil,
Table 7. Composition of petroleum products exports in India, 1990-91 to 2019-20
(Value: Million $; Share: Per cent) Commodities 1990-91
2000-01 2010-11 1990-91 1990-91 to to 1999-2000* to 2009-10 to 2019-20 to 2019-20 2019-20 Value Share Value Share Value Share Value Share Growth rate LPG 0 0.00 48 0.28 216 0.52 120 0.37 11.18*** MS@ 16 9.94 2122 19.32 11455 26.40 6173 21.69 24.78*** Naphtha@ 103 87.27 2940 23.88 5821 13.19 3992 24.79 17.77 ** ATF 0 0.00 1471 9.76 4098 9.73 2532 8.86 22.85*** SKO 0 0.00 54 0.38 24 0.06 35 0.20 -14.19NS HSD 0 0.00 4835 35.32 17403 40.55 10108 34.49 20.45*** LDO 0 0.00 3 0.05 27 0.07 14 0.05 -17.91** LOBS/Lube oil 0 0.00 70 0.40 26 0.06 44 0.21 -2.09NS Fuel oil 0 0.00 915 6.01 2193 4.48 1412 4.77 12.77NS Bitumen 0 0.00 7 0.04 25 0.06 15 0.04 8.61** Others* 5 2.80 597 4.56 2170 4.90 1258 4.55 23.39*** Total 124 100.0 13062 100.0 43458 100.0 25702 100.0 27.05***
@ stands for the latest availability since 1998-99 in the case of these countries.
LPG (Liquefied Natural Gas, MS (Motor Spirit, ATF (Air Turbine Fuel, SKO (Superior Kerosene Oil, FO (Fuel Oil, LSHS (Low Sulphur Heavy Stock, HSD (High-
Speed Diesel Oil, LDO (Light Diesel Oil and Others* consists of Hexane, Benzene, Toluene, Xylene, and speciality solvents, Reformate, Mineral Turpentine
Oil, Carbon black feedstock, Waxes, Sulphur, and Petcock, etc. *** and ** are Significant at 1 and 5 per cent levels. NS: Non-significant.
among all exportable products. In the third decade, HSD Kenya,
remained at the top with the highest share (40.55 per South Africa, Indonesia, Tanzania, China, Iran, Egypt,
cent), followed by MS, Naphtha, FO, and Others, while Bangladesh, and other Asian countries, were major
LPG, SKO, LDO, Lube Oil, and Bitumen had less than 1 petroleum export destinations of India. During the first
per cent share. In terms of overall growth (1990-2019), decade, all the developed and developing countries had
MS, ATF, and HSD had accounted for high growth, less than one per cent share in petroleum exports from
whereas LDO, SKO, and Lubes had registered negative India except Indonesia (1.54 per cent), France (1.56 per
growth. It was concluded that HSD, Naphtha, MS, ATF, cent), and unspecified countries (92.09 per cent). During NS: Non-significant. 785 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Indian J Econ Dev 19(4) December 2023
the second decade, Singapore (13.24 per cent) achieved
India's highest share of petroleum products exports,
followed by UAE (11.17 per cent). Other developing
countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Brazil, Kenya, South
Africa, and Iran had recorded less than 5 per cent share
of petroleum product exports from India. 786 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Shalu et al.: Petroleum export performance in India
In contrast, Malaysia, China, Tanzania, Egypt, and decade, there was improvement in coverage of areas
Bangladesh had recorded less than 1 per cent of regarding the maximum share of
petroleum exports from India. Among developed exports to developing countries. Similarly, in the third
countries, the United States and the United Kingdom decade, India exported the largest share of petroleum
had achieved the highest share; other developed products to Singapore (12.83 per cent), followed by UAE
countries contained less than 1 per cent share of (12.40 per cent), Saudi Arabia (4.44 per cent), and Brazil
petroleum product exports from India. During this (3.14 per cent) among developing countries. At the
same time, Egypt, Iran, and Bangladesh had received a
Table 8. Petroleum products exports of India to selected developed and developing countries
(Value: Million $; Share: Per cent) Countries 1990-1999 2000-09 2010-19 1990-2019 1990-2019 Value Share Value Share Value Share Value Share CGR (per cent) Developing Singapore 1 0.23 1790 13.24 5884 12.83 2558 8.77 56.54 *** UAE 1 0.42 1886 11.17 5572 12.40 2486 8.00 62.89 *** Unspecified 369 92.09 539 22.46 1822 3.82 910 39.46 6.07 *** Saudi Arabia 0 0.10 303 1.32 2383 4.44 896 1.95 56.22 *** Sri Lanka 0 0.11 417 3.41 689 1.58 369 1.70 57.00 *** Malaysia 0 0.12 104 0.57 970 2.17 358 0.95 53.38 *** Nepal* 0 0.10 212 1.63 846 1.92 365 1.22 55.84 *** Brazil 0 0.00 484 3.41 1669 3.14 1076 2.18 17.83NS Kenya 0 0.04 305 1.57 1377 2.96 561 1.52 60.29 *** Korea@ 0 0.02 561 2.92 1066 2.29 626 1.75 63.56 *** South Africa@ 0 0.00 368 2.09 1163 2.45 612 1.51 78.38 *** Indonesia 126 1.54 285 2.88 993 2.00 426 2.14 40.60 *** Tanzania@ 0 0.04 114 0.47 1148 2.37 468 0.96 67.00 *** China@ 0 0.03 48 0.41 1202 2.65 463 1.03 65.33 *** Iran@ 1 0.39 450 4.84 28 0.06 177 1.76 21.12 ** Egypt@ 0 0.15 86 0.47 344 0.71 159 0.44 54.00 *** Bangladesh 0 0.14 56 0.49 189 0.44 82 0.36 42.01 *** Other Asian 0 0.09 230 1.15 991 2.09 421 1.11 51.66 *** Countries @ Developed United States@ 0 0.14 266 2.75 2358 5.20 937 2.70 65.11 *** France@ 3 1.56 129 0.89 1025 2.30 428 1.58 43.88 *** Mauritius@ 0 0.00 233 1.01 556 1.17 343 0.73 86.94 *** UK@ 0 0.06 350 2.16 380 0.69 261 0.97 49.23 *** Australia@ 0 0.24 4 0.03 518 1.40 186 0.56 55.19 *** NS: N Be o lgi n u-si mg nificant. 0 0.00 35 0.21 293 0.61 164 0.27 56.50 *** Total 376 97.61 9255 81.56 33465 71.70 14365 83.62 23.36 *** 787 World 379 100.0 12331 100.0 46383 100.0 19698 100.0 25.31 ***
@ These countries constitute approximately 84 per cent of India's petroleum product exports. Unspecified (as a country) carried a substantial share of
India's petroleum product exports during the first and second decades, but i ts share fell very fast during the third. @ stands for non-availability of export
data for the concerned country in sequence during 1990–2019. *** and ** are Significant at 1 and 5 per cent levels. lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Indian J Econ Dev 19(4) December 2023
very minute share. Among developed countries, the
United States (5.20 per cent) achieved the highest share of 788 lOMoAR cPSD| 47206071
Shalu et al.: Petroleum export performance in India
Table 9. Intra-industry trade (IIT Index) of petroleum trade
high degree of intra-industry trade in its petroleum in India, 1990-2019 trade. CONCLUSIONS Years IIT Index
The study explored the growth and structural Quantity Value
dynamics of petroleum exports in India since 1990. The
findings revealed that the share of export petroleum 1990-91 to 1994-95 0.46 0.37
products in export earnings of India had achieved 1995-96 to 1999-00 0.18 0.16
impressive growth during the study period. Among the
top petroleum exporters, India had improved its share 2000-01 to 2004-05 0.79 0.8
of the world's petroleum exports. During the study 2005-06 to 2009-10 0.64 0.63
period, India had registered the highest petroleum 2010-11 to 2014-15 0.43 0.39
export growth vis-à-vis the world and other major 2015-16 to 2019-20 0.71 0.58
exporters. Moreover, a high degree of intra-industry 1990-91 to 2019-20 0.54 0.49
trade also existed in the petroleum trade in India.
The value of the IIT index varies between 0 to 1.
Composition-wise, HSD, followed by MS, Naphtha, ATF,
Others, and Fuel Oils, emerged as the leading petroleum
petroleum products, while other developing countries product in India's petroleum export basket. However,
did not contain much share of petroleum product the share of HSD had experienced a consistent decline
exports from India. In terms of growth during 1990-
during the study period. The analysis of the petroleum
2019, India's petroleum exports to Mauritius (86.94 per export direction stated that both developed countries,
cent) had achieved the highest growth, followed by namely Mauritius, UK, Australia, Belgium, US, and
Unspecified (6.07 per cent) and Brazil (17.83 per cent).
France, and developing countries, namely Singapore,
Therefore, it was concluded that the petroleum UAE, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, etc.
export direction of India had undergone a massive were the leading export destinations for petroleum
change during the study period. Countries like Singapore products exports in India during 1990-2019. The
(12.83 per cent), UAE (12.40 per cent), United States favourable government policies had led to the
(5.20 per cent), Saudi Arabia (4.44 per cent), and Brazil exponential growth of petroleum exports. As a result,
(3.14 per cent) had emerged as major destinations for India, with a lack of crude oil and refining technology,
petroleum products exports from India. It was had successfully become one of the leading petroleum
confirmed that the demand for petroleum product exporters in the world's petroleum export market. The
exports from India was proliferating not only in study's findings also confirmed that India could not
developing countries but also developed countries achieve consistent growth in its petroleum exports (Table 8).
during the study period. Thus, it invokes the government
Status of Intra-Industry Trade of Petroleum Products in
to give attention to the proper execution of effective India
policies by ascertaining the reasons for instability in
Using the intra-industry trade index, the intra-
petroleum exports so that this sector can make an
industry trade of petroleum products in quantity and impressive contribution to the growth and development
value terms from 1990 to 2019 is presented in Table 9. of the country.
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